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Mavericks at Magic

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final DAL 114 – ORL 115
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL33292626114
ORL26343124115
Team box
DAL·ORL
39-86
field goals
44-97
14-32
3-pointers
13-39
22-28
free throws
14-16
44
rebounds
47
28
assists
31
13
turnovers
12
38
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Klay ThompsonDAL262441
Khris MiddletonDAL321927
Tristan da SilvaORL251933
Cooper FlaggDAL261856
P.J. WashingtonDAL331851
Jalen SuggsORL311727

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +14
DAL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 11 · DAL 14lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 37%, ORL 63% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
ORL by 4.8
Expected score
ORL 114.6 – 109.8 DAL
Expected total
224.3
MavericksThe matchupMagic
+172Our fair odds−172
109.8Expected points114.6
−0.35Power rating+0.03
113.5Points / game114.8
117.7Allowed / game114.3
47.2FG%46.3
33.53P%34.0
44.7Rebounds / game43.3
21−40Season record32−28
2−8Last 106−4
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving
Marvin Bagley IIIOutFranz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · ORL chance
Our model fair36.8%63.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+17237%————
ORLOrlando Magic−17263%————
SpreadORL by 4.8
DALDallas Mavericks+4.8our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.3
Over224.3our total————
Under224.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 4.8 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more53%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more38%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·ORL
Mar 3 at CHA
last game
Mar 3 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMarvin Bagley III · neck; sprainOut
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · left quad; contusionQuestionable
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainQuestionable
DALKlay Thompson · right adductor; contusionProbable
DALNaji Marshall · right finger; contusionProbable
Orlando Magic
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLAnthony Black · right quad; contusionQuestionable
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
ORLWendell Carter Jr. · left ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
DAL·ORL
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
113.5
points / game
114.8
117.7
points allowed / game
114.3
21−40
season record
32−28
14−19
home record
19−12
7−21
away record
13−16
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
47.2
FG%
46.3
33.5
3P%
34.0
44.7
rebounds / game
43.3
24.9
assists / game
26.4
14.8
turnovers / game
13.8
53.7
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

DAL · ORL · 121 days
Dallas MavericksOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ORL 2−6
Mar 27, 2025at ORLDAL 101 − 92
Nov 3, 2024at DALDAL 108 − 85
Jan 29, 2024at DALDAL 131 − 129
Nov 6, 2023at ORLDAL 117 − 102
Nov 9, 2022at ORLORL 94 − 87
Oct 30, 2022at DALDAL 114 − 105
Jan 30, 2022at ORLORL 110 − 108
Jan 15, 2022at DALDAL 108 − 92

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W
Feb 7vs UTAH120 − 117W