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Wizards at Magic

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final WSH 109 – ORL 126
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH24302728109
ORL27304029126
Team box
WSH·ORL
43-92
field goals
42-76
7-32
3-pointers
10-25
16-25
free throws
32-37
42
rebounds
38
23
assists
33
14
turnovers
9
60
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL323756
Desmond BaneORL332524
Will RileyWSH331935
Jaden HardyWSH221821
Sharife CooperWSH201633
Justin ChampagnieWSH231381

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +25
WSH +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 25 · WSH 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 21%, ORL 79% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
ORL by 12.6
Expected score
ORL 119.2 – 106.6 WSH
Expected total
225.8
WizardsThe matchupMagic
+378Our fair odds−378
106.6Expected points119.2
−1.15Power rating+0.03
112.3Points / game114.6
123.0Allowed / game114.4
45.9FG%46.2
35.43P%33.9
43.0Rebounds / game43.4
16−44Season record31−28
2−8Last 106−4
Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Anthony Gill · Cam Whitmore
D'Angelo RussellOutAlex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ORL chance
Our model fair20.9%79.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+37821%————
ORLOrlando Magic−37879%————
SpreadORL by 12.6
WSHWashington Wizards+12.6our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−12.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.8
Over225.8our total————
Under225.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 12.6 expected
Washington Wizards by 53 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 52 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 51 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 50 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 51 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 52 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 53 points: <1%
← WSH wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more72%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more58%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more43%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GWill Rileystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FJulian Reesestarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CGoga Bitadzestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ORL
Mar 2 vs HOU
last game
Mar 1 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHAnthony Gill · n/a; illnessOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deepOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHJamir Watkins · left ankle; foot; sprainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHTrae Young · vein thrombosis right knee; mcl sprain; quad contusionOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left thigh; contusionOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · right quad; contusionOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
WSH·ORL
−1.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
112.3
points / game
114.6
123.0
points allowed / game
114.4
16−44
season record
31−28
11−21
home record
18−12
5−23
away record
13−16
L5
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
6−4
45.9
FG%
46.2
35.4
3P%
33.9
43.0
rebounds / game
43.4
25.1
assists / game
26.2
15.5
turnovers / game
13.8
47.5
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

WSH · ORL · 119 days
Washington WizardsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 9−1
Jan 6at WSHWSH 120 − 112
Nov 1, 2025at WSHORL 125 − 94
Apr 3, 2025at WSHORL 109 − 97
Mar 21, 2025at WSHORL 120 − 105
Feb 23, 2025at ORLORL 110 − 90
Nov 10, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 94
Mar 6, 2024at WSHORL 119 − 109
Dec 26, 2023at WSHORL 127 − 119
Dec 1, 2023at ORLORL 130 − 125
Nov 29, 2023at ORLORL 139 − 120

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L
Feb 7at BKN113 − 127L

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W
Feb 7vs UTAH120 − 117W
Feb 5vs BKN118 − 98W