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Mavericks at Celtics

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final DAL 100 – BOS 120
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL22312720100
BOS21373230120
Team box
DAL·BOS
38-93
field goals
47-99
14-35
3-pointers
16-48
10-12
free throws
10-15
45
rebounds
58
23
assists
29
10
turnovers
10
30
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS332477
Derrick WhiteBOS312044
Klay ThompsonDAL181901
Payton PritchardBOS341876
Neemias QuetaBOS2616150
Cooper FlaggDAL301686

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +25
DAL +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 25 · DAL 5lead changes: 22

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 20%, BOS 80% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
BOS by 12.6
Expected score
BOS 116.9 – 104.3 DAL
Expected total
221.2
MavericksThe matchupCeltics
+390Our fair odds−390
104.3Expected points116.9
−0.35Power rating+0.86
113.5Points / game114.5
117.6Allowed / game107.1
47.1FG%46.7
33.63P%36.4
44.7Rebounds / game46.2
21−41Season record41−21
2−8Last 107−3
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair20.4%79.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+39020%————
BOSBoston Celtics−39080%————
SpreadBOS by 12.6
DALDallas Mavericks+12.6our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−12.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.2
Over221.2our total————
Under221.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 12.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 53 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 53 points: <1%
← DAL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more72%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more58%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more43%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.2 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·BOS
Mar 5 at ORL
last game
Mar 4 vs CHA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementDoubtful
DALMarvin Bagley III · neck; sprainDoubtful
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALBrandon Williams · left quad; contusionProbable
DALKlay Thompson · right adductor; contusionProbable
Boston Celtics
BOSJordan Walsh · illness; non-covidQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
DAL·BOS
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
113.5
points / game
114.5
117.6
points allowed / game
107.1
21−41
season record
41−21
14−19
home record
20−10
7−22
away record
21−11
L5
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
47.1
FG%
46.7
33.6
3P%
36.4
44.7
rebounds / game
46.2
24.9
assists / game
24.4
14.8
turnovers / game
12.2
53.5
points in paint / game
44.1

Rating Trend

DAL · BOS · 122 days
Dallas MavericksBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 8−2
Feb 3at DALBOS 110 − 100
Feb 6, 2025at BOSDAL 127 − 120
Jan 25, 2025at DALBOS 122 − 107
Jun 17, 2024at BOSBOS 106 − 88post
Jun 14, 2024at DALDAL 122 − 84post
Jun 12, 2024at DALBOS 106 − 99post
Jun 9, 2024at BOSBOS 105 − 98post
Jun 6, 2024at BOSBOS 107 − 89post
Mar 1, 2024at BOSBOS 138 − 110
Jan 22, 2024at DALBOS 119 − 110

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L