bayesRatings

Celtics at Bucks

NBA · Monday, Mar 2 · 6:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final BOS 108 – MIL 81
← NBA / Mar 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS30272625108
MIL2023221681
Team box
BOS·MIL
41-95
field goals
27-74
20-50
3-pointers
13-36
6-9
free throws
14-19
54
rebounds
41
31
assists
18
11
turnovers
16
34
points in paint
22
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Payton PritchardBOS342549
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL2519112
Hugo GonzalezBOS3518161
Derrick WhiteBOS341819
Sam HauserBOS291441
Ousmane DiengMIL301312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +31
BOS +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 7 · BOS 31lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 68%, MIL 32% · Updated Mar 2

Expected margin
BOS by 7.4
Expected score
BOS 114.1 – 106.7 MIL
Expected total
220.8
CelticsThe matchupBucks
−211Our fair odds+211
114.1Expected points106.7
+0.80Power rating−0.13
115.0Points / game111.8
107.4Allowed / game115.7
46.9FG%48.0
36.53P%39.0
46.1Rebounds / game41.2
40−20Season record26−33
8−2Last 106−4
Jaylen Brown · Jayson Tatum
Neemias QuetaOut (3 each)Alex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIL chance
Our model fair67.9%32.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−21168%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+21132%————
SpreadBOS by 7.4
BOSBoston Celtics−7.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.8
Over220.8our total————
Under220.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 7.4 expected
Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more61%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more45%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

220.8 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.531%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
GHugo Gonzalezstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIL
Mar 1 vs PHI
last game
Mar 1 at CHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 2, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJaylen Brown · illness; non-covidOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSNeemias Queta · restOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
BOS·MIL
+0.80
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
115.0
points / game
111.8
107.4
points allowed / game
115.7
40−20
season record
26−33
20−9
home record
14−14
20−11
away record
12−19
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
46.9
FG%
48.0
36.5
3P%
39.0
46.1
rebounds / game
41.2
24.4
assists / game
26.0
12.2
turnovers / game
14.6
44.3
points in paint / game
43.7

Rating Trend

BOS · MIL · 118 days
Boston CelticsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 3−7
Feb 1at BOSBOS 107 − 79
Dec 11, 2025at MILMIL 116 − 101
Dec 6, 2024at BOSBOS 111 − 105
Nov 10, 2024at MILBOS 113 − 107
Oct 28, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 108
Apr 9, 2024at MILMIL 104 − 91
Mar 20, 2024at BOSBOS 122 − 119
Jan 11, 2024at MILMIL 135 − 102
Nov 22, 2023at BOSBOS 119 − 116
Mar 30, 2023at MILBOS 140 − 99

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L
Feb 6vs MIA98 − 96W
Feb 4at HOU114 − 93W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W