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Hornets at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 4 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final CHA 118 – BOS 89
← NBA / Mar 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA35292727118
BOS2320252189
Team box
CHA·BOS
41-89
field goals
30-79
19-49
3-pointers
10-36
17-21
free throws
19-20
43
rebounds
45
26
assists
18
5
turnovers
16
32
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Derrick WhiteBOS292923
Jaylen BrownBOS3420117
Kon KnueppelCHA312040
LaMelo BallCHA231874
Brandon MillerCHA271852
Coby WhiteCHA201716

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +29
CHA +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 0 · CHA 29lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 24%, BOS 76% · Updated Mar 4

Expected margin
BOS by 10.3
Expected score
BOS 113.3 – 103.0 CHA
Expected total
216.3
HornetsThe matchupCeltics
+316Our fair odds−316
103.0Expected points113.3
−0.14Power rating+0.86
116.1Points / game114.9
112.7Allowed / game107.0
46.2FG%46.8
37.83P%36.6
46.3Rebounds / game46.2
31−31Season record41−20
7−3Last 108−2
Grant Williams · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane SalaunOutJayson Tatum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair24.1%75.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+31624%————
BOSBoston Celtics−31676%————
SpreadBOS by 10.3
CHACharlotte Hornets+10.3our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.3
Over216.3our total————
Under216.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 10.3 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 52 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%
← CHA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more67%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more52%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

216.3 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.549%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·BOS
Mar 3 vs DAL
last game
Mar 2 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left knee; sprainOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
CHA·BOS
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
116.1
points / game
114.9
112.7
points allowed / game
107.0
31−31
season record
41−20
14−16
home record
20−9
17−15
away record
21−11
W5
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
8−2
46.2
FG%
46.8
37.8
3P%
36.6
46.3
rebounds / game
46.2
26.6
assists / game
24.5
15.8
turnovers / game
12.1
46.2
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

CHA · BOS · 120 days
Charlotte HornetsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 9−1
Apr 13, 2025at BOSBOS 93 − 86
Apr 11, 2025at BOSBOS 130 − 94
Nov 2, 2024at CHABOS 113 − 103
Nov 1, 2024at CHABOS 124 − 109
Apr 12, 2024at BOSBOS 131 − 98
Apr 1, 2024at CHABOS 118 − 104
Nov 20, 2023at CHACHA 121 − 118
Feb 10, 2023at BOSBOS 127 − 116
Jan 16, 2023at CHABOS 130 − 118
Jan 14, 2023at CHABOS 122 − 106

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L
Feb 6vs MIA98 − 96W