bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 10:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MIN 106 – LAL 120
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN21242338106
LAL16293936120
Team box
MIN·LAL
37-80
field goals
45-93
10-40
3-pointers
11-38
22-28
free throws
19-26
43
rebounds
47
22
assists
31
11
turnovers
7
42
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL35311111
Austin ReavesLAL383178
Deandre AytonLAL3414122
Julius RandleMIN261472
Anthony EdwardsMIN311424
Naz ReidMIN251361

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +23
MIN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 23 · MIN 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 52%, LAL 48% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
MIN by 2.0
Expected score
MIN 115.8 – 113.8 LAL
Expected total
229.5
TimberwolvesThe matchupLakers
−109Our fair odds+109
115.8Expected points113.8
+0.47Power rating+0.20
118.6Points / game115.9
114.5Allowed / game115.0
48.3FG%49.9
37.33P%35.9
44.6Rebounds / game40.9
40−24Season record39−25
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · LAL chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10952%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+10948%————
SpreadMIN by 2.0
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−2our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 2.0 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%
← MIN wins byLAL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more45%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more31%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·LAL
Mar 7 vs ORL
last game
Mar 8 vs NY
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
LALLeBron James · right hip contusion; & left foot arthritisQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
MIN·LAL
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
118.6
points / game
115.9
114.5
points allowed / game
115.0
40−24
season record
39−25
22−12
home record
20−12
18−12
away record
19−13
L1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
49.9
37.3
3P%
35.9
44.6
rebounds / game
40.9
26.2
assists / game
25.4
14.6
turnovers / game
14.7
50.0
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

MIN · LAL · 126 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 4−6
Oct 29, 2025at MINLAL 116 − 115
Oct 24, 2025at LALLAL 128 − 110
Apr 30, 2025at LALMIN 103 − 96post
Apr 27, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 113post
Apr 25, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 104post
Apr 22, 2025at LALLAL 94 − 85post
Apr 19, 2025at LALMIN 117 − 95post
Feb 27, 2025at LALLAL 111 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at MINMIN 97 − 87
Dec 2, 2024at MINMIN 109 − 80

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W