bayesRatings

Magic at Timberwolves

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 2:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final ORL 119 – MIN 92
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL27333029119
MIN3020281492
Team box
ORL·MIN
42-91
field goals
30-84
9-34
3-pointers
9-40
26-31
free throws
23-31
58
rebounds
37
28
assists
17
15
turnovers
12
60
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN323432
Desmond BaneORL333034
Paolo BancheroORL3525153
Julius RandleMIN261491
Jalen SuggsORL291444
Naz ReidMIN261381

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +27
ORL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 8 · ORL 27lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 35%, MIN 65% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
MIN by 6.2
Expected score
MIN 114.1 – 108.0 ORL
Expected total
222.1
MagicThe matchupTimberwolves
+186Our fair odds−186
108.0Expected points114.1
+0.03Power rating+0.48
114.8Points / game119.0
114.3Allowed / game114.4
46.3FG%48.5
34.03P%37.5
43.3Rebounds / game44.7
33−28Season record40−23
6−4Last 108−2
Alex Morales · Colin Castleton
Franz Wagner · Jase Richardson
Jonathan IsaacOutEnrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Kyle Anderson · Zyon Pullin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair35.0%65.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+18635%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−18665%————
SpreadMIN by 6.2
ORLOrlando Magic+6.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.1
Over222.1our total————
Under222.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 6.2 expected
Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%
← ORL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more57%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more41%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.568%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.529%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·MIN
Mar 5 vs DAL
last game
Mar 5 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJase Richardson · low back; spasmsOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sorenessOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINKyle Anderson · right knee; sorenessOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
ORL·MIN
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
114.8
points / game
119.0
114.3
points allowed / game
114.4
33−28
season record
40−23
20−12
home record
22−11
13−16
away record
18−12
W2
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
8−2
46.3
FG%
48.5
34.0
3P%
37.5
43.3
rebounds / game
44.7
26.4
assists / game
26.3
13.7
turnovers / game
14.7
51.5
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

ORL · MIN · 123 days
Orlando MagicMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIN 4−4
Mar 14, 2025at MINMIN 118 − 111
Jan 9, 2025at ORLMIN 104 − 89
Feb 2, 2024at MINORL 108 − 106
Jan 9, 2024at ORLMIN 113 − 92
Feb 3, 2023at MINORL 127 − 120
Nov 16, 2022at ORLMIN 126 − 108
Mar 11, 2022at ORLORL 118 − 110
Nov 1, 2021at MINORL 115 − 97

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L