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Pacers at Lakers

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final IND 117 – LAL 128
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND27242937117
LAL35293529128
Team box
IND·LAL
46-98
field goals
45-85
8-35
3-pointers
17-37
17-24
free throws
21-23
40
rebounds
43
33
assists
25
7
turnovers
13
62
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL324495
Pascal SiakamIND292653
Austin ReavesLAL291925
Andrew NembhardIND311728
Jay HuffIND331662
Luke KennardLAL271573

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +24
IND +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 24 · IND 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 33%, LAL 67% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
LAL by 6.2
Expected score
LAL 118.7 – 112.5 IND
Expected total
231.2
PacersThe matchupLakers
+206Our fair odds−206
112.5Expected points118.7
−0.39Power rating+0.17
111.3Points / game115.8
119.7Allowed / game115.3
45.1FG%49.9
35.03P%35.8
42.3Rebounds / game40.9
15−47Season record37−25
2−8Last 105−5
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese HaliburtonOut (3 each)Deandre Ayton · LeBron James
Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · LAL chance
Our model fair32.7%67.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+20633%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−20667%————
SpreadLAL by 6.2
INDIndiana Pacers+6.2our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.2
Over231.2our total————
Under231.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 6.2 expected
Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%
← IND wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more57%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more41%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.2 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·LAL
Mar 4 at LAC
last game
Mar 5 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle and lower back; sprainProbable
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back and neck; sorenessProbable
INDPascal Siakam · left wrist; sprainProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALDeandre Ayton · left knee; sorenessOut
LALLeBron James · left elbow contusion &; left foot arthritisOut
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar back; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
IND·LAL
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
111.3
points / game
115.8
119.7
points allowed / game
115.3
15−47
season record
37−25
10−22
home record
18−12
5−25
away record
19−13
L7
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
45.1
FG%
49.9
35.0
3P%
35.8
42.3
rebounds / game
40.9
26.4
assists / game
25.5
14.6
turnovers / game
14.7
45.5
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

IND · LAL · 122 days
Indiana PacersLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAL 6−3
Mar 26, 2025at INDLAL 120 − 119
Feb 8, 2025at LALLAL 124 − 117
Mar 29, 2024at INDIND 109 − 90
Mar 24, 2024at LALLAL 150 − 145
Dec 9, 2023at LALLAL 123 − 109
Feb 2, 2023at INDLAL 112 − 111
Nov 28, 2022at LALIND 116 − 115
Jan 19, 2022at LALIND 111 − 104
Nov 24, 2021at INDLAL 124 − 116

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L
Mar 1vs MEM106 − 125L
Feb 26vs CHA109 − 133L
Feb 24vs PHI114 − 135L
Feb 22vs DAL130 − 134L
Feb 20at WSH118 − 131L
Feb 19at WSH105 − 112L
Feb 11at BKN115 − 110W
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L
Feb 20vs LAC125 − 122W
Feb 12vs DAL124 − 104W
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L