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Bulls at Lakers

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final CHI 130 – LAL 142
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI26363632130
LAL26414134142
Team box
CHI·LAL
51-95
field goals
55-99
15-36
3-pointers
17-36
13-16
free throws
15-21
41
rebounds
41
34
assists
31
16
turnovers
10
66
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3751109
Austin ReavesLAL393057
Josh GiddeyCHI4027815
Deandre AytonLAL3723101
Matas BuzelisCHI352261
LeBron JamesLAL331877

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +22
CHI +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 22 · CHI 7lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 32%, LAL 68% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
LAL by 6.0
Expected score
LAL 120.4 – 114.4 CHI
Expected total
234.8
BullsThe matchupLakers
+208Our fair odds−208
114.4Expected points120.4
−0.36Power rating+0.20
115.6Points / game115.9
119.9Allowed / game114.9
46.8FG%49.8
36.23P%35.8
45.1Rebounds / game41.0
27−38Season record40−25
3−7Last 106−4
Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Mac McClung · Noa Essengue
Zach CollinsOutJaxson Hayes · Marcus Smart
Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · LAL chance
Our model fair32.5%67.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+20832%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−20868%————
SpreadLAL by 6.0
CHIChicago Bulls+6our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 6.0 expected
Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%
← CHI wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more56%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more41%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
FLeonard Millerstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·LAL
Mar 10 at GS
last game
Mar 10 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeyOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left foot; sorenessDoubtful
CHIPatrick Williams · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
CHICollin Sexton · left fibular head; contusionQuestionable
CHIIsaac Okoro · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeQuestionable
CHIJalen Smith · left calf; strain; injury managementQuestionable
and 2 more
Los Angeles Lakers
LALJaxson Hayes · back; sorenessOut
LALMarcus Smart · right hip; contusionOut
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar back; strainOut
LALLeBron James · right hip contusion; left foot arthritisQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
CHI·LAL
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
115.6
points / game
115.9
119.9
points allowed / game
114.9
27−38
season record
40−25
16−18
home record
21−12
11−20
away record
19−13
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
46.8
FG%
49.8
36.2
3P%
35.8
45.1
rebounds / game
41.0
28.8
assists / game
25.5
14.9
turnovers / game
14.6
51.6
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

CHI · LAL · 128 days
Chicago BullsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAL 3−6
Jan 26at CHILAL 129 − 118
Mar 27, 2025at CHICHI 119 − 117
Mar 22, 2025at LALCHI 146 − 115
Jan 25, 2024at LALLAL 141 − 132
Dec 20, 2023at CHICHI 124 − 108
Mar 29, 2023at CHILAL 121 − 110
Mar 26, 2023at LALCHI 118 − 108
Dec 19, 2021at CHICHI 115 − 110
Nov 15, 2021at LALCHI 121 − 103

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 10at GS130 − 124W
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L
Mar 5at PHX105 − 103W
Mar 3vs OKC108 − 116L
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L
Feb 22vs NY99 − 105L
Feb 21vs DET110 − 126L
Feb 19vs TOR101 − 110L

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L
Feb 22vs BOS89 − 111L