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Bulls at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final CHI 130 – GS 124
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
CHI2631322912130
GS302132356124
Team box
CHI·GS
50-112
field goals
44-105
15-47
3-pointers
20-54
15-18
free throws
16-18
64
rebounds
49
34
assists
30
14
turnovers
12
64
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Matas BuzelisCHI454162
Tre JonesCHI332245
Josh GiddeyCHI43211317
Leonard MillerCHI3817111
Pat SpencerGS301736
Kristaps PorzingisGS201742

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +13
CHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: GS 10 · CHI 13lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 33%, GS 67% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
GS by 6.4
Expected score
GS 119.5 – 113.1 CHI
Expected total
232.6
BullsThe matchupWarriors
+200Our fair odds−200
113.1Expected points119.5
−0.36Power rating+0.17
115.4Points / game115.1
119.8Allowed / game114.0
46.8FG%46.0
36.33P%35.7
44.8Rebounds / game43.0
26−38Season record32−32
2−8Last 103−7
Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Lachlan Olbrich · Mac McClung
Noa EssengueOutJimmy Butler III · Moses Moody
Seth Curry · Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · GS chance
Our model fair33.3%66.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+20033%————
GSGolden State Warriors−20067%————
SpreadGS by 6.4
CHIChicago Bulls+6.4our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.4 expected
Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%
← CHI wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more57%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GJosh Giddeystarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
FLeonard Millerstarted
Golden State Warriors
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·GS
Mar 8 at SAC
last game
Mar 9 at UTAH
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHICollin Sexton · left fibular head; contusionQuestionable
CHIPatrick Williams · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CHIJalen Smith · left calf; strainProbable
CHIJosh Giddey · right ankle; sprainProbable
and 1 more
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; injury managementOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left adductor; sorenessQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementQuestionable
GSQuinten Post · bilateral foot; sorenessQuestionable
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; impingementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
CHI·GS
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
115.4
points / game
115.1
119.8
points allowed / game
114.0
26−38
season record
32−32
16−18
home record
19−13
10−20
away record
13−19
L1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
3−7
46.8
FG%
46.0
36.3
3P%
35.7
44.8
rebounds / game
43.0
28.7
assists / game
29.2
14.9
turnovers / game
15.5
51.4
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

CHI · GS · 126 days
Chicago BullsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 7−2
Dec 7, 2025at CHIGS 123 − 91
Feb 8, 2025at CHIGS 132 − 111
Jan 23, 2025at GSGS 131 − 106
Mar 7, 2024at GSCHI 125 − 122
Jan 12, 2024at CHIGS 140 − 131
Jan 15, 2023at CHICHI 132 − 118
Dec 2, 2022at GSGS 119 − 111
Jan 14, 2022at CHIGS 138 − 96
Nov 12, 2021at GSGS 119 − 93

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L
Mar 5at PHX105 − 103W
Mar 3vs OKC108 − 116L
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L
Feb 22vs NY99 − 105L
Feb 21vs DET110 − 126L
Feb 19vs TOR101 − 110L
Feb 11at BOS105 − 124L

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L