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Bulls at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final CHI 105 – PHX 103
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI24312822105
PHX20302726103
Team box
CHI·PHX
41-86
field goals
36-92
7-28
3-pointers
13-46
16-25
free throws
18-27
46
rebounds
48
23
assists
24
13
turnovers
15
68
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Collin SextonCHI383035
Devin BookerPHX322762
Tre JonesCHI292165
Grayson AllenPHX332128
Guerschon YabuseleCHI371662
Jalen GreenPHX321233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +12
CHI +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 0 · CHI 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 36%, PHX 64% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
PHX by 4.6
Expected score
PHX 118.0 – 113.4 CHI
Expected total
231.3
BullsThe matchupSuns
+175Our fair odds−175
113.4Expected points118.0
−0.34Power rating+0.05
115.7Points / game112.1
120.0Allowed / game111.2
46.9FG%45.5
36.53P%35.9
44.7Rebounds / game43.4
25−37Season record35−26
1−9Last 104−6
Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Noa Essengue · Zach CollinsOutDillon Brooks · Jordan Goodwin
Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · PHX chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+17536%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−17564%————
SpreadPHX by 4.6
CHIChicago Bulls+4.6our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.3
Over231.3our total————
Under231.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 4.6 expected
Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%
← CHI wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more53%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more37%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.3 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCollin Sextonstarted
GTre Jonesstarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FLeonard Millerstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·PHX
Mar 3 vs OKC
last game
Mar 3 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid;Out
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHIJalen Smith · fracture right calf; strainDoubtful
CHIPatrick Williams · right quadricep; strainDoubtful
CHIJosh Giddey · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
CHIMatas Buzelis · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
CHI·PHX
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
115.7
points / game
112.1
120.0
points allowed / game
111.2
25−37
season record
35−26
16−18
home record
20−12
9−19
away record
15−14
L1
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
4−6
46.9
FG%
45.5
36.5
3P%
35.9
44.7
rebounds / game
43.4
28.8
assists / game
24.6
15.0
turnovers / game
14.9
51.4
points in paint / game
43.5

Rating Trend

CHI · PHX · 121 days
Chicago BullsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHX 8−0
Mar 19, 2025at PHXPHX 127 − 121
Feb 22, 2025at CHIPHX 121 − 117
Jan 22, 2024at PHXPHX 115 − 113
Nov 8, 2023at CHIPHX 116 − 115
Mar 3, 2023at CHIPHX 125 − 104
Nov 30, 2022at PHXPHX 132 − 113
Mar 18, 2022at PHXPHX 129 − 102
Feb 7, 2022at CHIPHX 127 − 124

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 3vs OKC108 − 116L
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L
Feb 22vs NY99 − 105L
Feb 21vs DET110 − 126L
Feb 19vs TOR101 − 110L
Feb 11at BOS105 − 124L
Feb 9at BKN115 − 123L
Feb 7vs DEN120 − 136L

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L
Feb 5vs GS97 − 101L