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Suns at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 3 · 10:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final PHX 114 – SAC 103
← NBA / Mar 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX22373124114
SAC30252028103
Team box
PHX·SAC
42-92
field goals
41-90
19-49
3-pointers
7-27
11-17
free throws
14-18
53
rebounds
40
31
assists
25
19
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Maxime RaynaudSAC3622104
Jalen GreenPHX312041
Precious AchiuwaSAC391891
Grayson AllenPHX251836
Collin GillespiePHX311759
Devin BookerPHX311746

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +20
PHX +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 8 · PHX 20lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 65%, SAC 35% · Updated Mar 3

Expected margin
PHX by 4.9
Expected score
PHX 116.0 – 111.1 SAC
Expected total
227.2
SunsThe matchupKings
−185Our fair odds+185
116.0Expected points111.1
+0.05Power rating−0.74
112.1Points / game110.3
111.3Allowed / game121.2
45.5FG%46.2
35.93P%33.6
43.2Rebounds / game41.7
34−26Season record14−48
4−6Last 102−8
Dillon Brooks · Jordan GoodwinOutDe'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · SAC chance
Our model fair64.9%35.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−18565%————
SACSacramento Kings+18535%————
SpreadPHX by 4.9
PHXPhoenix Suns−4.9our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 4.9 expected
Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%
← PHX wins bySAC wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more54%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more38%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·SAC
Feb 26 vs LAL
last game
Mar 1 at LAL
4 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 3, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACZach LaVine · left 5th finger; tendon repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
PHX·SAC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.74
112.1
points / game
110.3
111.3
points allowed / game
121.2
34−26
season record
14−48
20−12
home record
9−20
14−14
away record
5−28
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
45.5
FG%
46.2
35.9
3P%
33.6
43.2
rebounds / game
41.7
24.5
assists / game
25.2
14.8
turnovers / game
14.5
43.5
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

PHX · SAC · 119 days
Phoenix SunsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 3−7
Jan 2at PHXPHX 129 − 102
Nov 26, 2025at SACPHX 112 − 100
Oct 22, 2025at PHXPHX 120 − 116
Apr 13, 2025at SACSAC 109 − 98
Mar 14, 2025at PHXPHX 122 − 106
Nov 13, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 104
Nov 10, 2024at PHXSAC 127 − 118
Apr 12, 2024at SACPHX 108 − 107
Feb 13, 2024at PHXPHX 130 − 125
Jan 16, 2024at PHXPHX 119 − 117

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L
Feb 5vs GS97 − 101L
Feb 3at POR130 − 125W

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L
Feb 9at NO94 − 120L
Feb 7vs CLE126 − 132L
Feb 6vs LAC111 − 114L