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Warriors at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Mar 9 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final GS 116 – UTAH 119
← NBA / Mar 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS27282932116
UTAH29303228119
Team box
GS·UTAH
43-99
field goals
40-83
16-52
3-pointers
12-34
14-21
free throws
27-29
46
rebounds
50
33
assists
29
10
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Anthony MeltonGS202272
Brice SensabaughUTAH292123
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH2519155
Elijah HarklessUTAH241626
Gui SantosGS331585
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH241502

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +11
GS +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 11 · GS 3lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 71%, UTAH 29% · Updated Mar 9

Expected margin
GS by 8.5
Expected score
GS 124.0 – 115.5 UTAH
Expected total
239.5
WarriorsThe matchupJazz
−245Our fair odds+245
124.0Expected points115.5
+0.17Power rating−0.91
115.0Points / game117.4
113.9Allowed / game125.0
46.0FG%46.5
35.73P%34.6
42.9Rebounds / game44.0
32−31Season record19−45
4−6Last 102−8
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · Moses Moody
Stephen CurryOut (5 each)Isaiah Collier · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf Nurkic · Lauri Markkanen
Vince Williams Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair71.0%29.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−24571%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+24529%————
SpreadGS by 8.5
GSGolden State Warriors−8.5our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.5
Over239.5our total————
Under239.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 8.5 expected
Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%
← GS wins byUTAH wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more64%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more48%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.5 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.548%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Utah Jazz
GJohn Koncharstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·UTAH
Mar 7 at OKC
last game
Mar 7 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 9, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illness managementOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSWill Richard · right ankle; sprainOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHIsaiah Collier · n/a; illnessOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHVince Williams Jr. · left knee; injury managementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHAce Bailey · n/a; illnessQuestionable
UTAHKeyonte George · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
GS·UTAH
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.91
115.0
points / game
117.4
113.9
points allowed / game
125.0
32−31
season record
19−45
19−13
home record
11−21
13−18
away record
8−24
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
46.0
FG%
46.5
35.7
3P%
34.6
42.9
rebounds / game
44.0
29.2
assists / game
29.5
15.6
turnovers / game
15.6
44.2
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

GS · UTAH · 125 days
Golden State WarriorsUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 1−9
Jan 28at UTAHGS 140 − 124
Jan 3at GSGS 123 − 114
Nov 24, 2025at GSGS 134 − 117
Feb 5, 2025at UTAHUTAH 131 − 128
Jan 28, 2025at GSGS 114 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at UTAHGS 127 − 86
Apr 14, 2024at GSGS 123 − 116
Apr 7, 2024at GSGS 118 − 110
Feb 15, 2024at UTAHGS 140 − 137
Feb 12, 2024at UTAHGS 129 − 107

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L
Feb 23at HOU105 − 125L
Feb 20at MEM114 − 123L
Feb 12vs POR119 − 135L
Feb 11vs SAC121 − 93W