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Jazz at Wizards

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final UTAH 122 – WSH 112
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH37302629122
WSH23263528112
Team box
UTAH·WSH
47-92
field goals
36-77
15-35
3-pointers
18-42
13-18
free throws
22-32
45
rebounds
43
31
assists
22
12
turnovers
19
56
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ace BaileyUTAH333220
Isaiah CollierUTAH2927311
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH3120143
Julian ReeseWSH3818202
Bilal CoulibalyWSH341732
Leaky BlackWSH391631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +21
UTAH +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 3 · UTAH 21lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
UTAH by 0.7
Expected score
UTAH 123.0 – 122.3 WSH
Expected total
245.3
JazzThe matchupWizards
−107Our fair odds+107
123.0Expected points122.3
−0.91Power rating−1.15
117.6Points / game112.2
125.5Allowed / game123.0
46.6FG%46.0
34.63P%35.1
43.8Rebounds / game43.0
18−44Season record16−45
2−8Last 102−8
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte George · Lauri Markkanen
Vince Williams Jr.Out (5 each)Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Jamir Watkins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · WSH chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz−10752%————
WSHWashington Wizards+10748%————
SpreadUTAH by 0.7
UTAHUtah Jazz−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 245.3
Over245.3our total————
Under245.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Utah Jazz by 0.7 expected
Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byWSH wins by →
Utah Jazz wins by 5 or more42%
Utah Jazz wins by 10 or more28%
Utah Jazz wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

245.3 expected
194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 235.567%
Total over 245.548%
Total over 255.531%
Total from 236 to 25536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GJohn Koncharstarted
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
Washington Wizards
GTrae Youngstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FLeaky Blackstarted
FJulian Reesestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·WSH
Mar 4 at PHI
last game
Mar 3 at ORL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right ankle; injury managementOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHVince Williams Jr. · left knee; injury managementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; strainOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHJamir Watkins · left ankle; foot; sprainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left thigh; contusionOut
WSHAnthony Gill · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
UTAH·WSH
−0.91
rating (0 = average)
−1.15
117.6
points / game
112.2
125.5
points allowed / game
123.0
18−44
season record
16−45
11−21
home record
11−21
7−23
away record
5−24
L7
streak
L6
2−8
last 10
2−8
46.6
FG%
46.0
34.6
3P%
35.1
43.8
rebounds / game
43.0
29.6
assists / game
25.1
15.7
turnovers / game
15.5
51.9
points in paint / game
47.7

Rating Trend

UTAH · WSH · 121 days
Utah JazzWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WSH 3−5
Mar 19, 2025at UTAHUTAH 128 − 112
Mar 5, 2025at WSHWSH 125 − 122
Mar 4, 2024at UTAHUTAH 127 − 115
Jan 25, 2024at WSHUTAH 123 − 108
Dec 22, 2022at UTAHUTAH 120 − 112
Nov 12, 2022at WSHWSH 121 − 112
Dec 18, 2021at UTAHWSH 109 − 103
Dec 11, 2021at WSHUTAH 123 − 98

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L
Feb 23at HOU105 − 125L
Feb 20at MEM114 − 123L
Feb 12vs POR119 − 135L
Feb 11vs SAC121 − 93W
Feb 9at MIA115 − 111W
Feb 7at ORL117 − 120L

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 3at ORL109 − 126L
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L
Feb 8vs MIA101 − 132L