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Jazz at Bucks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final UTAH 99 – MIL 113
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH1331322399
MIL24273230113
Team box
UTAH·MIL
31-90
field goals
41-85
12-49
3-pointers
15-44
25-29
free throws
16-28
53
rebounds
48
23
assists
33
12
turnovers
11
28
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL272798
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH292224
Kyle KuzmaMIL291825
Brice SensabaughUTAH191752
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH3414116
Ryan RollinsMIL4013118

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +15
UTAH +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 15 · UTAH 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 29%, MIL 71% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
MIL by 7.5
Expected score
MIL 123.0 – 115.5 UTAH
Expected total
238.5
JazzThe matchupBucks
+243Our fair odds−243
115.5Expected points123.0
−0.91Power rating−0.18
117.7Points / game111.4
125.2Allowed / game115.8
46.7FG%47.9
34.73P%38.8
43.8Rebounds / game41.1
19−44Season record26−35
3−7Last 105−5
Isaiah Collier · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf Nurkic · Lauri Markkanen
Vince Williams Jr.OutAlex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Kevin Porter Jr. · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · MIL chance
Our model fair29.1%70.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+24329%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−24371%————
SpreadMIL by 7.5
UTAHUtah Jazz+7.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−7.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.5
Over238.5our total————
Under238.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 7.5 expected
Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more60%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.5 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
COscar Tshiebwestarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·MIL
Mar 5 at WSH
last game
Mar 4 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHIsaiah Collier · personal reasonsOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHVince Williams Jr. · left knee; injury managementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; swellingOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
UTAH·MIL
−0.91
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
117.7
points / game
111.4
125.2
points allowed / game
115.8
19−44
season record
26−35
11−21
home record
14−16
8−23
away record
12−19
W1
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
5−5
46.7
FG%
47.9
34.7
3P%
38.8
43.8
rebounds / game
41.1
29.6
assists / game
25.9
15.6
turnovers / game
14.6
52.0
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

UTAH · MIL · 123 days
Utah JazzMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 5−3
Jan 27, 2025at UTAHMIL 125 − 110
Nov 7, 2024at MILMIL 123 − 100
Feb 4, 2024at UTAHUTAH 123 − 108
Jan 8, 2024at MILUTAH 132 − 116
Mar 24, 2023at UTAHMIL 144 − 116
Dec 17, 2022at MILMIL 123 − 97
Mar 14, 2022at UTAHMIL 117 − 111
Oct 31, 2021at MILUTAH 107 − 95

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L
Mar 2vs DEN125 − 128L
Feb 28vs NO105 − 115L
Feb 26vs NO118 − 129L
Feb 23at HOU105 − 125L
Feb 20at MEM114 − 123L
Feb 12vs POR119 − 135L
Feb 11vs SAC121 − 93W
Feb 9at MIA115 − 111W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W