bayesRatings

Hawks at Bucks

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 4 · 8:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final ATL 131 – MIL 113
← NBA / Mar 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL25413233131
MIL38331824113
Team box
ATL·MIL
50-92
field goals
43-86
20-45
3-pointers
13-39
11-16
free throws
14-20
40
rebounds
41
33
assists
27
11
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL262454
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL322312
Onyeka OkongwuATL312181
Jalen JohnsonATL342059
CJ McCollumATL291828
Kyle KuzmaMIL221622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +23
ATL +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 16 · ATL 23lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, MIL 50% · Updated Mar 4

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 117.2 – 116.5 MIL
Expected total
233.7
HawksThe matchupBucks
+101Our fair odds−101
117.2Expected points116.5
−0.02Power rating−0.18
117.4Points / game111.3
117.4Allowed / game115.5
47.0FG%47.8
36.53P%38.9
43.3Rebounds / game41.1
31−31Season record26−34
6−4Last 105−5
—OutAlex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Kevin Porter Jr. · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10150%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−10150%————
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byMIL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more42%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more28%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIL
Mar 1 vs POR
last game
Mar 2 vs BOS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; inflammationQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; swellingOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
ATL·MIL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
117.4
points / game
111.3
117.4
points allowed / game
115.5
31−31
season record
26−34
14−16
home record
14−15
17−15
away record
12−19
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.0
FG%
47.8
36.5
3P%
38.9
43.3
rebounds / game
41.1
30.4
assists / game
25.9
14.3
turnovers / game
14.6
51.7
points in paint / game
43.4

Rating Trend

ATL · MIL · 120 days
Atlanta HawksMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Jan 19at ATLMIL 112 − 110
Mar 30, 2025at MILATL 145 − 124
Mar 4, 2025at ATLMIL 127 − 121
Feb 7, 2025at ATLATL 115 − 110
Dec 14, 2024at MILMIL 110 − 102
Dec 4, 2024at MILATL 119 − 104
Mar 30, 2024at ATLMIL 122 − 113
Dec 2, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 121
Oct 29, 2023at MILATL 127 − 110
Jan 11, 2023at ATLMIL 114 − 105

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L