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Nuggets at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 8:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final DEN 136 – SA 131
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN25284142136
SA37323725131
Team box
DEN·SA
44-88
field goals
43-95
12-36
3-pointers
19-47
36-38
free throws
26-32
47
rebounds
49
27
assists
34
10
turnovers
10
56
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN403927
Nikola JokicDEN39312012
Stephon CastleSA35301110
De'Aaron FoxSA362739
Harrison BarnesSA272071
Spencer JonesDEN331942

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +20
DEN +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 20 · DEN 9lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 42%, SA 58% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
SA by 2.1
Expected score
SA 119.2 – 117.2 DEN
Expected total
236.4
NuggetsThe matchupSpurs
+140Our fair odds−140
117.2Expected points119.2
+0.37Power rating+0.54
120.4Points / game118.6
116.3Allowed / game111.8
49.4FG%48.2
39.13P%35.6
43.2Rebounds / game46.3
40−26Season record48−18
5−5Last 109−1
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton WatsonOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · SA chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+14042%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−14058%————
SpreadSA by 2.1
DENDenver Nuggets+2.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.4
Over236.4our total————
Under236.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 2.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more46%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more32%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

236.4 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·SA
Mar 11 vs HOU
last game
Mar 10 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainProbable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Barnes · left ankle; impingementQuestionable
SALindy Waters III · “”; illnessQuestionable
SAVictor Wembanyama · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
DEN·SA
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
120.4
points / game
118.6
116.3
points allowed / game
111.8
40−26
season record
48−18
18−13
home record
25−6
22−13
away record
23−12
W1
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
9−1
49.4
FG%
48.2
39.1
3P%
35.6
43.2
rebounds / game
46.3
28.1
assists / game
27.3
13.0
turnovers / game
13.6
48.8
points in paint / game
50.8

Rating Trend

DEN · SA · 128 days
Denver NuggetsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 5−5
Nov 28, 2025at DENSA 139 − 136
Apr 2, 2025at DENSA 113 − 106
Jan 4, 2025at SADEN 122 − 111
Jan 3, 2025at DENSA 113 − 110
Apr 12, 2024at SASA 121 − 120
Apr 2, 2024at DENDEN 110 − 105
Mar 15, 2024at SADEN 117 − 106
Nov 26, 2023at DENDEN 132 − 120
Mar 10, 2023at SASA 128 − 120
Nov 7, 2022at SADEN 115 − 109

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W