bayesRatings

Celtics at Spurs

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final BOS 116 – SA 125
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS31273226116
SA29293928125
Team box
BOS·SA
42-89
field goals
44-85
19-51
3-pointers
20-47
13-17
free throws
17-25
37
rebounds
44
27
assists
27
8
turnovers
12
34
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3739113
Derrick WhiteBOS403457
De'Aaron FoxSA352539
Jayson TatumBOS272452
Ron Harper Jr.BOS332232
Stephon CastleSA341896

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +13
BOS +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 13 · BOS 7lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 53%, SA 47% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
BOS by 2.6
Expected score
BOS 112.1 – 109.5 SA
Expected total
221.6
CelticsThe matchupSpurs
−113Our fair odds+113
112.1Expected points109.5
+0.84Power rating+0.54
114.5Points / game118.5
106.9Allowed / game111.7
46.6FG%48.1
36.43P%35.5
46.4Rebounds / game46.3
43−21Season record47−18
8−2Last 109−1
John Tonje · Nikola Vucevic
Payton PritchardOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Barnes · Harrison Ingram

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · SA chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−11353%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+11347%————
SpreadBOS by 2.6
BOSBoston Celtics−2.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.6
Over221.6our total————
Under221.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 2.6 expected
Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%
← BOS wins bySA wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more47%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more32%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.6 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·SA
Mar 8 at CLE
last game
Mar 8 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
BOSPayton Pritchard · neck; spasmOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Barnes · left ankle; impingementOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SALindy Waters III · “”; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
BOS·SA
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
114.5
points / game
118.5
106.9
points allowed / game
111.7
43−21
season record
47−18
21−10
home record
24−6
22−11
away record
23−12
W2
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
9−1
46.6
FG%
48.1
36.4
3P%
35.5
46.4
rebounds / game
46.3
24.5
assists / game
27.3
12.2
turnovers / game
13.6
44.0
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

BOS · SA · 126 days
Boston CelticsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 3−6
Jan 10at BOSSA 100 − 95
Mar 29, 2025at SABOS 121 − 111
Feb 12, 2025at BOSBOS 116 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at BOSBOS 117 − 98
Dec 31, 2023at SABOS 134 − 101
Mar 26, 2023at BOSBOS 137 − 93
Jan 7, 2023at SABOS 121 − 116
Jan 5, 2022at BOSSA 99 − 97
Nov 26, 2021at SASA 96 − 88

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W
Feb 19at GS121 − 110W

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W
Mar 6vs LAC116 − 112W
Mar 5vs DET121 − 106W
Mar 3at PHI131 − 91W
Mar 1at NY89 − 114L
Feb 26at BKN126 − 110W
Feb 25at TOR110 − 107W
Feb 23at DET114 − 103W
Feb 21vs SAC139 − 122W
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W