bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Nets

NBA · Monday, Mar 9 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final MEM 115 – BKN 126
← NBA / Mar 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM31262929115
BKN33322635126
Team box
MEM·BKN
40-92
field goals
47-85
14-35
3-pointers
17-33
21-25
free throws
15-19
36
rebounds
43
25
assists
35
15
turnovers
20
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Rayan RupertMEM362081
Javon SmallMEM321973
Day'Ron SharpeBKN181952
GG JacksonMEM261844
Ochai AgbajiBKN221831
Jaylen WellsMEM261752

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +21
MEM +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 21 · MEM 10lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 64%, BKN 36% · Updated Mar 9

Expected margin
MEM by 4.7
Expected score
MEM 115.6 – 110.9 BKN
Expected total
226.5
GrizzliesThe matchupNets
−175Our fair odds+175
115.6Expected points110.9
−0.17Power rating−0.91
115.7Points / game106.9
117.8Allowed / game115.6
46.3FG%44.5
35.53P%34.2
43.9Rebounds / game40.2
23−39Season record16−47
3−7Last 101−9
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Taj GibsonOutEgor Demin · Michael Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · BKN chance
Our model fair63.6%36.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−17564%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+17536%————
SpreadMEM by 4.7
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−4.7our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 4.7 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%
← MEM wins byBKN wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more53%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more38%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GDrake Powellstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·BKN
Mar 7 vs LAC
last game
Mar 7 at DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competition reconditioningOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; injury managementDoubtful
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; sorenessDoubtful
MEMTaylor Hendricks · right thumb; sorenessDoubtful
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; injury managementDoubtful
Brooklyn Nets
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · restOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
MEM·BKN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.91
115.7
points / game
106.9
117.8
points allowed / game
115.6
23−39
season record
16−47
12−19
home record
8−22
11−20
away record
8−25
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
1−9
46.3
FG%
44.5
35.5
3P%
34.2
43.9
rebounds / game
40.2
28.8
assists / game
25.5
15.2
turnovers / game
15.7
49.7
points in paint / game
44.1

Rating Trend

MEM · BKN · 125 days
Memphis GrizzliesBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 4−6
Jan 11at MEMMEM 103 − 98
Dec 13, 2024at MEMMEM 135 − 119
Nov 4, 2024at BKNBKN 106 − 104
Oct 30, 2024at MEMBKN 119 − 106
Mar 4, 2024at BKNMEM 106 − 102
Feb 26, 2024at MEMBKN 111 − 86
Nov 20, 2022at BKNBKN 127 − 115
Oct 24, 2022at MEMMEM 134 − 124
Mar 23, 2022at MEMMEM 132 − 120
Jan 3, 2022at BKNMEM 118 − 104

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Mar 7at DET107 − 105W
Mar 5at MIA110 − 126L
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L
Mar 1vs CLE102 − 106L
Feb 27at BOS111 − 148L
Feb 26vs SA110 − 126L
Feb 24vs DAL114 − 123L
Feb 22at ATL104 − 115L
Feb 20at OKC86 − 105L
Feb 19at CLE84 − 112L