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Clippers at Grizzlies

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final LAC 123 – MEM 120
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC23353134123
MEM41183130120
Team box
LAC·MEM
41-82
field goals
42-87
4-17
3-pointers
16-43
37-45
free throws
20-24
44
rebounds
34
15
assists
29
16
turnovers
15
66
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC282852
Ty JeromeMEM252327
Bennedict MathurinLAC3521101
Darius GarlandLAC262146
Taylor HendricksMEM261842
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC301641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +19
LAC +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 19 · LAC 9lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 55%, MEM 45% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
LAC by 1.2
Expected score
LAC 114.5 – 113.4 MEM
Expected total
227.9
ClippersThe matchupGrizzlies
−121Our fair odds+121
114.5Expected points113.4
+0.19Power rating−0.17
112.4Points / game115.6
112.1Allowed / game117.7
48.2FG%46.2
36.03P%35.4
41.0Rebounds / game44.1
30−32Season record23−38
5−5Last 103−7
Bradley Beal · John Collins
Yanic Konan NiederhauserOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Taj Gibson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · MEM chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−12155%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12145%————
SpreadLAC by 1.2
LACLA Clippers−1.2our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 1.2 expected
LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%
← LAC wins byMEM wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more43%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more29%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GScotty Pippen Jr.started
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·MEM
Mar 6 at SA
last game
Mar 4 vs POR
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACJohn Collins · neck; strainOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · management right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injuryOut
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competition reconditioningOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
LAC·MEM
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
112.4
points / game
115.6
112.1
points allowed / game
117.7
30−32
season record
23−38
16−13
home record
12−18
14−19
away record
11−20
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
48.2
FG%
46.2
36.0
3P%
35.4
41.0
rebounds / game
44.1
23.5
assists / game
28.8
14.6
turnovers / game
15.2
48.3
points in paint / game
49.7

Rating Trend

LAC · MEM · 123 days
LA ClippersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 4−6
Dec 15, 2025at LACMEM 121 − 103
Dec 5, 2025at MEMMEM 107 − 98
Nov 28, 2025at LACMEM 112 − 107
Mar 21, 2025at LACLAC 128 − 108
Feb 12, 2025at LACLAC 128 − 114
Dec 23, 2024at MEMLAC 114 − 110
Feb 23, 2024at MEMLAC 101 − 95
Jan 12, 2024at MEMLAC 128 − 119
Dec 29, 2023at LACLAC 117 − 106
Nov 12, 2023at LACMEM 105 − 101

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L
Feb 22vs ORL109 − 111L
Feb 20at LAL122 − 125L
Feb 19vs DEN115 − 114W
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W
Feb 10at HOU95 − 102L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L