bayesRatings

Nets at Heat

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final BKN 110 – MIA 126
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN26302727110
MIA31293531126
Team box
BKN·MIA
41-95
field goals
48-91
16-41
3-pointers
9-27
12-18
free throws
21-24
49
rebounds
45
30
assists
29
20
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3627133
Tyler HerroMIA312545
Bam AdebayoMIA252172
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA331877
Noah ClowneyBKN341774
Kel'el WareMIA3216111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +24
BKN +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 24 · BKN 4lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 24%, MIA 76% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
MIA by 11.7
Expected score
MIA 116.5 – 104.8 BKN
Expected total
221.3
NetsThe matchupHeat
+325Our fair odds−325
104.8Expected points116.5
−0.91Power rating+0.11
106.8Points / game119.9
115.6Allowed / game116.7
44.5FG%46.4
34.13P%35.8
40.0Rebounds / game47.2
15−46Season record33−29
1−9Last 106−4
Chaney Johnson · Drake Powell
E.J. Liddell · Egor Demin
Tyson EtienneOut (5 each)Keshad Johnson · Nikola Jovic
Norman Powell · Simone Fontecchio
Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair23.6%76.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+32524%————
MIAMiami Heat−32576%————
SpreadMIA by 11.7
BKNBrooklyn Nets+11.7our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−11.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.3
Over221.3our total————
Under221.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 11.7 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 53 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 3%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 2%Miami Heat by 25 points: 2%Miami Heat by 26 points: 2%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 38 points: 1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 52 points: <1%Miami Heat by 53 points: <1%
← BKN wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more70%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more56%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.3 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·MIA
Mar 3 at MIA
last game
Mar 3 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 4, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNDrake Powell · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
Miami Heat
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIASimone Fontecchio · left groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
BKN·MIA
−0.91
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
106.8
points / game
119.9
115.6
points allowed / game
116.7
15−46
season record
33−29
8−22
home record
19−11
7−24
away record
14−18
L9
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
6−4
44.5
FG%
46.4
34.1
3P%
35.8
40.0
rebounds / game
47.2
25.5
assists / game
28.6
15.5
turnovers / game
14.1
44.0
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

BKN · MIA · 121 days
Brooklyn NetsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Mar 3at MIAMIA 124 − 98
Dec 18, 2025at BKNMIA 106 − 95
Feb 7, 2025at BKNBKN 102 − 86
Jan 25, 2025at BKNMIA 106 − 97
Dec 23, 2024at MIAMIA 110 − 95
Jan 15, 2024at BKNMIA 96 − 95
Nov 25, 2023at BKNBKN 112 − 97
Nov 16, 2023at MIAMIA 122 − 115
Nov 1, 2023at MIABKN 109 − 105
Mar 25, 2023at MIABKN 129 − 100

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L
Mar 1vs CLE102 − 106L
Feb 27at BOS111 − 148L
Feb 26vs SA110 − 126L
Feb 24vs DAL114 − 123L
Feb 22at ATL104 − 115L
Feb 20at OKC86 − 105L
Feb 19at CLE84 − 112L
Feb 11vs IND110 − 115L
Feb 9vs CHI123 − 115W

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L