bayesRatings

Nets at Pistons

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 5:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final BKN 107 – DET 105
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN19272734107
DET32302221105
Team box
BKN·DET
35-80
field goals
36-85
10-30
3-pointers
10-26
27-28
free throws
23-31
45
rebounds
37
20
assists
21
20
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3930131
Ziaire WilliamsBKN322340
Tobias HarrisDET3418100
Jalen DurenDET3217142
Noah ClowneyBKN311632
Duncan RobinsonDET231504

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +23
BKN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 23 · BKN 4lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 15%, DET 85% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
DET by 16.0
Expected score
DET 116.3 – 100.3 BKN
Expected total
216.7
NetsThe matchupPistons
+554Our fair odds−554
100.3Expected points116.3
−0.91Power rating+0.66
106.9Points / game117.0
115.7Allowed / game109.6
44.5FG%48.0
34.23P%34.4
40.1Rebounds / game46.2
15−47Season record45−16
0−10Last 107−3
Chaney Johnson · Drake Powell
E.J. Liddell · Egor Demin
Tyson EtienneOutAusar Thompson · Cade Cunningham
Isaac Jones · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · DET chance
Our model fair15.3%84.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+55415%————
DETDetroit Pistons−55485%————
SpreadDET by 16.0
BKNBrooklyn Nets+16our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−16our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.7
Over216.7our total————
Under216.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 16.0 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 53 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 1%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 51 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 52 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 53 points: <1%
← BKN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more80%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more68%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more53%
Within 5 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.7 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.570%
Total over 216.550%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Detroit Pistons
GMarcus Sasserstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·DET
Mar 5 at MIA
last game
Mar 5 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNDrake Powell · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
Detroit Pistons
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; sprainOut
DETCade Cunningham · left quadriceps; contusionOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETJalen Duren · low back; spasmsProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
BKN·DET
−0.91
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
106.9
points / game
117.0
115.7
points allowed / game
109.6
15−47
season record
45−16
8−22
home record
24−7
7−25
away record
21−9
L10
streak
L2
0−10
last 10
7−3
44.5
FG%
48.0
34.2
3P%
34.4
40.1
rebounds / game
46.2
25.6
assists / game
26.6
15.6
turnovers / game
15.2
44.1
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

BKN · DET · 123 days
Brooklyn NetsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Feb 1at DETDET 130 − 77
Nov 7, 2025at BKNDET 125 − 107
Mar 1, 2025at DETDET 115 − 94
Jan 8, 2025at BKNDET 113 − 98
Nov 3, 2024at BKNDET 106 − 92
Apr 6, 2024at BKNBKN 113 − 103
Mar 7, 2024at DETDET 118 − 112
Dec 26, 2023at DETBKN 118 − 112
Dec 23, 2023at BKNBKN 126 − 115
Apr 5, 2023at DETBKN 123 − 108

BKN · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 5at MIA110 − 126L
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L
Mar 1vs CLE102 − 106L
Feb 27at BOS111 − 148L
Feb 26vs SA110 − 126L
Feb 24vs DAL114 − 123L
Feb 22at ATL104 − 115L
Feb 20at OKC86 − 105L
Feb 19at CLE84 − 112L
Feb 11vs IND110 − 115L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 5at SA106 − 121L
Mar 3at CLE109 − 113L
Mar 1at ORL106 − 92W
Feb 27vs CLE122 − 119W
Feb 25vs OKC124 − 116W
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W
Feb 9at CHA110 − 104W