bayesRatings

Grizzlies at 76ers

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MEM 129 – PHI 139
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM32393325129
PHI32363041139
Team box
MEM·PHI
48-97
field goals
45-86
17-43
3-pointers
11-31
16-21
free throws
38-46
44
rebounds
40
26
assists
27
20
turnovers
11
58
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cameron PaynePHI3032310
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI3830121
Ty JeromeMEM252628
Quentin GrimesPHI352332
VJ EdgecombePHI352155
GG JacksonMEM251532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +14
MEM +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 12 · MEM 14lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
PHI by 0.8
Expected score
PHI 118.2 – 117.3 MEM
Expected total
235.5
GrizzliesThe matchup76ers
+124Our fair odds−124
117.3Expected points118.2
−0.23Power rating−0.19
115.7Points / game115.6
118.0Allowed / game116.1
46.2FG%46.0
35.53P%35.0
43.8Rebounds / game43.1
23−40Season record34−30
3−7Last 104−6
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Scotty Pippen Jr.OutJoel Embiid · Johni Broome
Paul George · Tyrese Maxey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12445%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−12455%————
SpreadPHI by 0.8
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.8our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 0.8 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%
← MEM wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more43%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more29%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAdem Bonastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·PHI
Mar 9 at BKN
last game
Mar 9 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; sorenessOut
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competition reconditioningOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; sprainOut
PHIVJ Edgecombe · lumbar; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
MEM·PHI
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
115.7
points / game
115.6
118.0
points allowed / game
116.1
23−40
season record
34−30
12−19
home record
17−16
11−21
away record
17−14
L4
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
46.2
FG%
46.0
35.5
3P%
35.0
43.8
rebounds / game
43.1
28.8
assists / game
24.5
15.2
turnovers / game
13.9
49.7
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

MEM · PHI · 126 days
Memphis GrizzliesPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHI 4−5
Dec 30, 2025at MEMPHI 139 − 136
Nov 20, 2024at MEMMEM 117 − 111
Nov 2, 2024at PHIMEM 124 − 107
Apr 6, 2024at MEMPHI 116 − 96
Mar 6, 2024at PHIMEM 115 − 109
Feb 23, 2023at PHIPHI 110 − 105
Dec 2, 2022at MEMMEM 117 − 109
Jan 31, 2022at PHIPHI 122 − 119
Dec 13, 2021at MEMMEM 126 − 91

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L
Mar 7at ATL116 − 125L
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W
Mar 3vs SA91 − 131L
Mar 1at BOS98 − 114L
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L