bayesRatings

76ers at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 7 · 5:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final PHI 116 – ATL 125
← NBA / Mar 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI38352122116
ATL28383128125
Team box
PHI·ATL
47-86
field goals
46-83
10-26
3-pointers
13-32
12-18
free throws
20-25
36
rebounds
39
27
assists
32
21
turnovers
21
74
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL3935107
Tyrese MaxeyPHI383125
Quentin GrimesPHI412663
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI362454
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL362426
CJ McCollumATL321737

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +13
PHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 10 · PHI 13lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, ATL 57% · Updated Mar 7

Expected margin
ATL by 2.4
Expected score
ATL 119.2 – 116.8 PHI
Expected total
236.1
76ersThe matchupHawks
+131Our fair odds−131
116.8Expected points119.2
−0.12Power rating−0.02
115.8Points / game117.6
115.9Allowed / game117.3
45.8FG%47.1
35.03P%36.7
43.3Rebounds / game43.3
34−28Season record32−31
4−6Last 106−4
Joel Embiid · Johni Broome
Paul George · VJ EdgecombeOut (4 each)Asa Newell · Jonathan Kuminga
Keshon Gilbert · RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+13143%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−13157%————
SpreadATL by 2.4
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+2.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.1
Over236.1our total————
Under236.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 2.4 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more47%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more32%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.1 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GTyrese Maxeystarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAdem Bonastarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Mar 4 vs UTAH
last game
Mar 4 at MIL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 7, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHIVJ Edgecombe · lumbar; contusionOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; inflammationOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
PHI·ATL
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
115.8
points / game
117.6
115.9
points allowed / game
117.3
34−28
season record
32−31
17−16
home record
14−16
17−12
away record
18−15
W1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
6−4
45.8
FG%
47.1
35.0
3P%
36.7
43.3
rebounds / game
43.3
24.6
assists / game
30.5
13.7
turnovers / game
14.3
48.6
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 123 days
Philadelphia 76ersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 8−2
Feb 19at PHIATL 117 − 107
Dec 14, 2025at ATLATL 120 − 117
Nov 30, 2025at PHIATL 142 − 134
Apr 11, 2025at PHIATL 124 − 110
Mar 23, 2025at ATLATL 132 − 119
Mar 10, 2025at ATLATL 132 − 123
Feb 9, 2024at PHIATL 127 − 121
Jan 10, 2024at ATLATL 139 − 132
Dec 8, 2023at PHIPHI 125 − 114
Nov 17, 2023at ATLPHI 126 − 116

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W
Mar 3vs SA91 − 131L
Mar 1at BOS98 − 114L
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L
Feb 19vs ATL107 − 117L
Feb 11vs NY89 − 138L
Feb 9at POR118 − 135L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W
Mar 1vs POR135 − 101W
Feb 26vs WSH126 − 96W
Feb 24vs WSH119 − 98W
Feb 22vs BKN115 − 104W
Feb 20vs MIA97 − 128L
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L