bayesRatings

76ers at Nuggets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 17 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final PHI 96 – DEN 124
← NBA / Mar 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI2218312596
DEN38342824124
Team box
PHI·DEN
37-94
field goals
43-86
9-41
3-pointers
16-33
13-15
free throws
22-31
42
rebounds
53
30
assists
35
13
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Christian BraunDEN272253
Cameron JohnsonDEN231821
MarJon BeauchampPHI201621
Jamal MurrayDEN261264
Trendon WatfordPHI221236
Aaron GordonDEN191252

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +33
PHI +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 33 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 31%, DEN 69% · Updated Mar 17

Expected margin
DEN by 6.5
Expected score
DEN 121.0 – 114.5 PHI
Expected total
235.5
76ersThe matchupNuggets
+219Our fair odds−219
114.5Expected points121.0
−0.17Power rating+0.43
115.6Points / game120.7
116.0Allowed / game116.7
46.1FG%49.4
34.43P%39.0
43.1Rebounds / game43.2
37−31Season record41−27
5−5Last 105−5
Jabari Walker · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
Paul GeorgeOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton Watson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DEN chance
Our model fair31.3%68.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+21931%————
DENDenver Nuggets−21969%————
SpreadDEN by 6.5
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+6.5our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 6.5 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%
← PHI wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more58%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more42%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CAdem Bonastarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DEN
Mar 15 vs POR
last game
Mar 14 at LAL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJabari Walker · n/a; illnessOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left elbow; sprainOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; tendon strainOut
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
PHI·DEN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
115.6
points / game
120.7
116.0
points allowed / game
116.7
37−31
season record
41−27
20−16
home record
18−13
17−15
away record
23−14
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
49.4
34.4
3P%
39.0
43.1
rebounds / game
43.2
24.4
assists / game
28.2
13.9
turnovers / game
13.0
49.7
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

PHI · DEN · 133 days
Philadelphia 76ersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 6−3
Jan 5at PHIDEN 125 − 124
Jan 31, 2025at PHIDEN 137 − 134
Jan 21, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 109
Jan 27, 2024at DENDEN 111 − 105
Jan 16, 2024at PHIPHI 126 − 121
Mar 27, 2023at DENDEN 116 − 111
Jan 28, 2023at PHIPHI 126 − 119
Mar 14, 2022at PHIDEN 114 − 110
Nov 18, 2021at DENPHI 103 − 89

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W
Mar 12at DET109 − 131L
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L
Mar 7at ATL116 − 125L
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W
Mar 3vs SA91 − 131L
Mar 1at BOS98 − 114L
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W