bayesRatings

76ers at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final PHI 109 – DET 131
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI27332128109
DET36333527131
Team box
PHI·DET
42-90
field goals
48-89
8-35
3-pointers
14-35
17-24
free throws
21-22
35
rebounds
40
20
assists
37
16
turnovers
17
64
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Duncan RobinsonDET251924
MarJon BeauchampPHI311762
Javonte GreenDET191721
Jabari WalkerPHI181612
Tobias HarrisDET221552
Ronald Holland IIDET251530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +35
PHI +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 35 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 28%, DET 72% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
DET by 8.4
Expected score
DET 117.4 – 109.0 PHI
Expected total
226.4
76ersThe matchupPistons
+251Our fair odds−251
109.0Expected points117.4
−0.19Power rating+0.56
115.9Points / game117.0
116.3Allowed / game109.6
46.1FG%48.0
35.03P%34.6
43.1Rebounds / game45.9
35−30Season record46−18
5−5Last 105−5
Adem Bona · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
Paul GeorgeOut (5 each)Ausar Thompson · Bobi Klintman
Caris LeVert · Isaac Jones
Tolu Smith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DET chance
Our model fair28.5%71.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+25128%————
DETDetroit Pistons−25172%————
SpreadDET by 8.4
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+8.4our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.4
Over226.4our total————
Under226.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 8.4 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 51 points: <1%
← PHI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more62%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more47%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.4 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FTrendon Watfordstarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
Detroit Pistons
GMarcus Sasserstarted
GCade Cunninghamstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DET
Mar 10 vs MEM
last game
Mar 10 at BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIAdem Bona · back; sorenessOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left elbow; sprainOut
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; tendon strainOut
PHIAndre Drummond · back; spasmsQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; sprainOut
DETBobi Klintman · coach's decisionOut
DETCaris LeVert · left wrist; sprainOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
PHI·DET
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
115.9
points / game
117.0
116.3
points allowed / game
109.6
35−30
season record
46−18
18−16
home record
24−8
17−14
away record
22−10
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
48.0
35.0
3P%
34.6
43.1
rebounds / game
45.9
24.6
assists / game
26.7
13.8
turnovers / game
15.0
49.3
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

PHI · DET · 128 days
Philadelphia 76ersDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
Nov 14, 2025at DETDET 114 − 105
Nov 9, 2025at PHIDET 111 − 108
Feb 7, 2025at DETDET 125 − 112
Nov 30, 2024at DETPHI 111 − 96
Oct 30, 2024at PHIDET 105 − 95
Apr 9, 2024at PHIPHI 120 − 102
Dec 15, 2023at PHIPHI 124 − 92
Dec 13, 2023at DETPHI 129 − 111
Nov 10, 2023at DETPHI 114 − 106
Jan 10, 2023at PHIPHI 147 − 116

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L
Mar 7at ATL116 − 125L
Mar 4vs UTAH106 − 102W
Mar 3vs SA91 − 131L
Mar 1at BOS98 − 114L
Feb 26vs MIA124 − 117W
Feb 24at IND135 − 114W
Feb 22at MIN135 − 108W
Feb 21at NO111 − 126L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 10at BKN138 − 100W
Mar 8at MIA110 − 121L
Mar 7vs BKN105 − 107L
Mar 5at SA106 − 121L
Mar 3at CLE109 − 113L
Mar 1at ORL106 − 92W
Feb 27vs CLE122 − 119W
Feb 25vs OKC124 − 116W
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W