bayesRatings

Pistons at Heat

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 5:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final DET 110 – MIA 121
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET16323230110
MIA34333618121
Team box
DET·MIA
40-90
field goals
43-93
11-37
3-pointers
12-33
19-24
free throws
23-25
39
rebounds
49
26
assists
31
12
turnovers
12
56
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET3526110
Tyler HerroMIA302563
Bam AdebayoMIA342496
Jalen DurenDET262451
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA291967
Isaiah StewartDET221461

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +29
DET +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 29 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 59%, MIA 41% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
DET by 3.2
Expected score
DET 116.0 – 112.8 MIA
Expected total
228.8
PistonsThe matchupHeat
−145Our fair odds+145
116.0Expected points112.8
+0.66Power rating+0.11
116.8Points / game120.1
109.6Allowed / game116.6
47.9FG%46.5
34.43P%36.0
46.1Rebounds / game47.1
45−17Season record35−29
6−4Last 107−3
Ausar Thompson · Caris LeVert
Isaac Jones · Wendell Moore Jr.OutAndrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Keshad Johnson · Nikola Jovic
Norman Powell

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIA chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−14559%————
MIAMiami Heat+14541%————
SpreadDET by 3.2
DETDetroit Pistons−3.2our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 3.2 expected
Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← DET wins byMIA wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more49%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more34%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GMarcus Sasserstarted
GCade Cunninghamstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIA
Mar 7 vs BKN
last game
Mar 6 at CHA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; sprainOut
DETCaris LeVert · left wrist; sprainOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCade Cunningham · left quadriceps; contusionProbable
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; inflammationOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIASimone Fontecchio · left groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
DET·MIA
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
116.8
points / game
120.1
109.6
points allowed / game
116.6
45−17
season record
35−29
24−8
home record
20−11
21−9
away record
15−18
L3
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.9
FG%
46.5
34.4
3P%
36.0
46.1
rebounds / game
47.1
26.5
assists / game
28.7
15.1
turnovers / game
14.0
57.0
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

DET · MIA · 124 days
Detroit PistonsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Jan 1at DETMIA 118 − 112
Nov 29, 2025at MIADET 138 − 135
Mar 19, 2025at MIADET 116 − 113
Dec 16, 2024at DETDET 125 − 124
Nov 12, 2024at DETDET 123 − 121
Oct 28, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 98
Mar 17, 2024at DETMIA 104 − 101
Mar 15, 2024at DETMIA 108 − 95
Mar 5, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 110
Oct 25, 2023at MIAMIA 103 − 102

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Mar 7vs BKN105 − 107L
Mar 5at SA106 − 121L
Mar 3at CLE109 − 113L
Mar 1at ORL106 − 92W
Feb 27vs CLE122 − 119W
Feb 25vs OKC124 − 116W
Feb 23vs SA103 − 114L
Feb 21at CHI126 − 110W
Feb 19at NY126 − 111W
Feb 11at TOR113 − 95W

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L