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Heat at Hornets

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final MIA 128 – CHA 120
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA30284030128
CHA27344019120
Team box
MIA·CHA
45-97
field goals
41-96
18-38
3-pointers
19-52
20-25
free throws
19-20
44
rebounds
48
31
assists
24
6
turnovers
13
50
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIA373399
Kon KnueppelCHA342724
Bam AdebayoMIA3924124
Brandon MillerCHA3422135
LaMelo BallCHA332125
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA312124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +9
MIA +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 6 · MIA 9lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, CHA 48% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
MIA by 0.4
Expected score
MIA 114.2 – 113.8 CHA
Expected total
227.9
HeatThe matchupHornets
−108Our fair odds+108
114.2Expected points113.8
+0.11Power rating−0.14
120.0Points / game116.1
116.6Allowed / game112.3
46.5FG%46.2
35.83P%37.9
47.2Rebounds / game46.3
34−29Season record32−31
7−3Last 107−3
Andrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Keshad Johnson · Nikola Jovic
Norman PowellOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CHA chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−10852%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+10848%————
SpreadMIA by 0.4
MIAMiami Heat−0.4our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 0.4 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCHA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more41%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more27%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CHA
Mar 5 vs BKN
last game
Mar 4 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · bilateral patellar; tendinitisOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIASimone Fontecchio · left groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
MIA·CHA
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
120.0
points / game
116.1
116.6
points allowed / game
112.3
34−29
season record
32−31
20−11
home record
14−16
14−18
away record
18−15
W3
streak
W6
7−3
last 10
7−3
46.5
FG%
46.2
35.8
3P%
37.9
47.2
rebounds / game
46.3
28.6
assists / game
26.6
14.1
turnovers / game
15.7
54.6
points in paint / game
45.9

Rating Trend

MIA · CHA · 122 days
Miami HeatCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 1−9
Nov 7, 2025at MIAMIA 126 − 108
Oct 28, 2025at MIAMIA 144 − 117
Mar 23, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 105
Mar 10, 2025at MIACHA 105 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at CHAMIA 98 − 94
Oct 26, 2024at CHAMIA 114 − 106
Jan 14, 2024at MIAMIA 104 − 87
Dec 13, 2023at MIAMIA 115 − 104
Dec 11, 2023at CHAMIA 116 − 114
Nov 14, 2023at CHAMIA 111 − 105

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W
Feb 28vs POR109 − 93W
Feb 26at IND133 − 109W
Feb 24at CHI131 − 99W
Feb 22at WSH129 − 112W
Feb 20vs CLE113 − 118L
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L