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Mavericks at Grizzlies

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final DAL 120 – MEM 112
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL34312134120
MEM22323028112
Team box
DAL·MEM
45-93
field goals
41-98
11-32
3-pointers
14-48
19-24
free throws
16-22
60
rebounds
38
25
assists
26
20
turnovers
10
64
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Khris MiddletonDAL253521
Jaylen WellsMEM322322
Daniel GaffordDAL2722141
GG JacksonMEM312043
Javon SmallMEM281929
Taylor HendricksMEM2417102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +20
DAL +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 0 · DAL 20lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 41%, MEM 59% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
MEM by 3.9
Expected score
MEM 119.5 – 115.5 DAL
Expected total
235.0
MavericksThe matchupGrizzlies
+145Our fair odds−145
115.5Expected points119.5
−0.43Power rating−0.23
113.0Points / game115.9
117.8Allowed / game118.3
46.9FG%46.2
33.63P%35.6
44.7Rebounds / game43.8
21−44Season record23−41
2−8Last 102−8
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Santi Aldama
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MEM chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+14541%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−14559%————
SpreadMEM by 3.9
DALDallas Mavericks+3.9our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.0
Over235.0our total————
Under235.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 3.9 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more51%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more36%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.0 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.567%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.529%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MEM
Mar 10 at ATL
last game
Mar 10 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALKlay Thompson · restDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayDoubtful
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; sesamoiditisOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; injury managementDoubtful
MEMTaj Gibson · return to competition reconditioningDoubtful
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; injury managementDoubtful
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
DAL·MEM
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
113.0
points / game
115.9
117.8
points allowed / game
118.3
21−44
season record
23−41
14−19
home record
12−19
7−25
away record
11−22
L8
streak
L5
2−8
last 10
2−8
46.9
FG%
46.2
33.6
3P%
35.6
44.7
rebounds / game
43.8
24.9
assists / game
28.7
14.8
turnovers / game
15.2
53.0
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

DAL · MEM · 128 days
Dallas MavericksMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 8−2
Feb 27at DALMEM 124 − 105
Nov 22, 2025at DALMEM 102 − 96
Nov 7, 2025at MEMMEM 118 − 104
Apr 13, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 97
Mar 7, 2025at DALMEM 122 − 111
Jan 6, 2025at MEMMEM 119 − 104
Dec 3, 2024at DALDAL 121 − 116
Jan 9, 2024at DALMEM 120 − 103
Dec 11, 2023at MEMDAL 120 − 113
Dec 1, 2023at DALMEM 108 − 94

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L
Mar 7vs LAC120 − 123L
Mar 4vs POR114 − 122L
Mar 3at MIN110 − 117L
Mar 1at IND125 − 106W
Feb 27at DAL124 − 105W
Feb 25vs GS112 − 133L
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L