bayesRatings

Warriors at Pistons

NBA · Friday, Mar 20 · 6:30 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final GS 101 – DET 115
← NBA / Mar 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS26242328101
DET21363028115
Team box
GS·DET
35-76
field goals
45-86
12-33
3-pointers
5-21
19-26
free throws
20-29
38
rebounds
35
23
assists
29
26
turnovers
15
44
points in paint
74
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen DurenDET212361
Daniss JenkinsDET382278
Paul ReedDET231563
Brandin PodziemskiGS301563
Gary Payton IIGS251433
De'Anthony MeltonGS231440

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +24
GS +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 24 · GS 9lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 34%, DET 66% · Updated Mar 20

Expected margin
DET by 5.6
Expected score
DET 115.2 – 109.6 GS
Expected total
224.8
WarriorsThe matchupPistons
+197Our fair odds−197
109.6Expected points115.2
+0.12Power rating+0.61
115.0Points / game117.4
114.5Allowed / game109.7
45.9FG%48.2
35.33P%34.8
42.8Rebounds / game46.0
33−36Season record50−19
2−8Last 105−5
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Quinten Post
Seth CurryOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Cade Cunningham
Isaac Jones · Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DET chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+19734%————
DETDetroit Pistons−19766%————
SpreadDET by 5.6
GSGolden State Warriors+5.6our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.8
Over224.8our total————
Under224.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 5.6 expected
Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%
← GS wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more55%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more40%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.8 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DET
Mar 18 at BOS
last game
Mar 19 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 20, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementProbable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; sorenessOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETJalen Duren · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
DETKevin Huerter · right shoulder; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
GS·DET
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
115.0
points / game
117.4
114.5
points allowed / game
109.7
33−36
season record
50−19
19−15
home record
26−8
14−21
away record
24−11
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
45.9
FG%
48.2
35.3
3P%
34.8
42.8
rebounds / game
46.0
29.1
assists / game
27.1
15.4
turnovers / game
15.0
44.6
points in paint / game
57.7

Rating Trend

GS · DET · 136 days
Golden State WarriorsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Jan 30at GSDET 131 − 124
Mar 8, 2025at GSGS 115 − 110
Jan 9, 2025at DETGS 107 − 104
Jan 5, 2024at GSGS 113 − 109
Nov 6, 2023at DETGS 120 − 109
Jan 4, 2023at GSDET 122 − 119
Oct 30, 2022at DETDET 128 − 114
Jan 18, 2022at GSGS 102 − 86
Nov 19, 2021at DETGS 105 − 102

GS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W
Mar 12vs PHI131 − 109W
Mar 10at BKN138 − 100W
Mar 8at MIA110 − 121L
Mar 7vs BKN105 − 107L
Mar 5at SA106 − 121L
Mar 3at CLE109 − 113L