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Warriors at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final GS 99 – BOS 120
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2327232699
BOS36272631120
Team box
GS·BOS
36-90
field goals
44-92
10-43
3-pointers
14-39
17-24
free throws
18-19
39
rebounds
49
26
assists
22
14
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS353265
Jayson TatumBOS3124102
Payton PritchardBOS311907
Luka GarzaBOS181570
Gary Payton IIGS211464
Pat SpencerGS201412

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +26
GS +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 26 · GS 4lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 29%, BOS 71% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
BOS by 7.7
Expected score
BOS 112.9 – 105.2 GS
Expected total
218.1
WarriorsThe matchupCeltics
+243Our fair odds−243
105.2Expected points112.9
+0.12Power rating+0.83
115.2Points / game114.3
114.4Allowed / game107.1
46.0FG%46.5
35.53P%36.3
42.9Rebounds / game46.2
33−35Season record45−23
3−7Last 107−3
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOutJohn Tonje · Nikola Vucevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · BOS chance
Our model fair29.1%70.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+24329%————
BOSBoston Celtics−24371%————
SpreadBOS by 7.7
GSGolden State Warriors+7.7our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.1
Over218.1our total————
Under218.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 7.7 expected
Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%
← GS wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more61%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more45%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.1 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.569%
Total over 218.549%
Total over 228.529%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·BOS
Mar 16 at WSH
last game
Mar 16 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 18, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementQuestionable
GSGary Payton II · left tibial; contusionProbable
Boston Celtics
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
GS·BOS
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.83
115.2
points / game
114.3
114.4
points allowed / game
107.1
33−35
season record
45−23
19−15
home record
23−10
14−20
away record
22−13
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
46.0
FG%
46.5
35.5
3P%
36.3
42.9
rebounds / game
46.2
29.2
assists / game
24.6
15.4
turnovers / game
12.2
44.6
points in paint / game
43.8

Rating Trend

GS · BOS · 134 days
Golden State WarriorsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Feb 19at GSBOS 121 − 110
Jan 20, 2025at GSBOS 125 − 85
Nov 6, 2024at BOSGS 118 − 112
Mar 3, 2024at BOSBOS 140 − 88
Dec 19, 2023at GSGS 132 − 126
Jan 19, 2023at BOSBOS 121 − 118
Dec 10, 2022at GSGS 123 − 107
Jun 16, 2022at BOSGS 103 − 90post
Jun 13, 2022at GSGS 104 − 94post
Jun 10, 2022at BOSGS 107 − 97post

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W