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Timberwolves at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Mar 13 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MIN 127 – GS 117
← NBA / Mar 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN31383127127
GS28203930117
Team box
MIN·GS
46-82
field goals
39-97
12-30
3-pointers
15-48
23-26
free throws
24-25
45
rebounds
38
25
assists
23
17
turnovers
9
52
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN374285
Brandin PodziemskiGS3625102
Kristaps PorzingisGS222042
Rudy GobertMIN361892
Gui SantosGS351738
Jaden McDanielsMIN301512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +25
MIN +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 3 · MIN 25lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 53%, GS 47% · Updated Mar 13

Expected margin
MIN by 1.6
Expected score
MIN 114.4 – 112.8 GS
Expected total
227.2
TimberwolvesThe matchupWarriors
−113Our fair odds+113
114.4Expected points112.8
+0.47Power rating+0.17
118.6Points / game115.2
115.1Allowed / game114.2
48.5FG%45.9
37.23P%35.7
44.3Rebounds / game43.1
40−26Season record32−33
6−4Last 103−7
Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Zyon PullinOut (3 each)Jimmy Butler III · Moses Moody
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · GS chance
Our model fair53.0%46.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−11353%————
GSGolden State Warriors+11347%————
SpreadMIN by 1.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−1.6our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 1.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%
← MIN wins byGS wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more44%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more30%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·GS
Mar 11 at LAC
last game
Mar 10 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 13, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
MINAyo Dosunmu · right thumb; sprainQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left adductor; injury managementQuestionable
GSQuinten Post · bilateral foot; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
MIN·GS
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
118.6
points / game
115.2
115.1
points allowed / game
114.2
40−26
season record
32−33
22−12
home record
19−14
18−14
away record
13−19
L3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
48.5
FG%
45.9
37.2
3P%
35.7
44.3
rebounds / game
43.1
26.2
assists / game
29.2
14.7
turnovers / game
15.4
50.2
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

MIN · GS · 129 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 4−6
Jan 26at MINMIN 108 − 83
Jan 25at MINGS 111 − 85
Dec 12, 2025at GSMIN 127 − 120
May 14, 2025at MINMIN 121 − 110post
May 12, 2025at GSMIN 117 − 110post
May 10, 2025at GSMIN 102 − 97post
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 117 − 93post
May 6, 2025at MINGS 99 − 88post
Jan 15, 2025at MINGS 116 − 115
Dec 21, 2024at MINGS 113 − 103

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W
Mar 3vs MEM117 − 110W
Mar 1at DEN117 − 108W
Feb 26at LAC94 − 88W
Feb 24at POR124 − 121W
Feb 22vs PHI108 − 135L
Feb 20vs DAL122 − 111W

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L