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Warriors at Wizards

NBA · Monday, Mar 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final GS 125 – WSH 117
← NBA / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS34303427125
WSH23342931117
Team box
GS·WSH
46-91
field goals
40-78
9-32
3-pointers
13-34
24-28
free throws
24-29
41
rebounds
36
32
assists
24
17
turnovers
21
68
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kristaps PorzingisGS263054
De'Anthony MeltonGS302754
Bilal CoulibalyWSH332184
Will RileyWSH392145
Trae YoungWSH212125
Gui SantosGS281845

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +17
GS +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 3 · GS 17lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 77%, WSH 23% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
GS by 10.3
Expected score
GS 121.4 – 111.1 WSH
Expected total
232.5
WarriorsThe matchupWizards
−328Our fair odds+328
121.4Expected points111.1
+0.17Power rating−1.22
115.1Points / game112.7
114.4Allowed / game123.7
45.9FG%46.0
35.63P%35.3
42.9Rebounds / game42.9
32−35Season record16−50
2−8Last 100−10
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Seth Curry
Stephen CurryOut (5 each)Alex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Kyshawn George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · WSH chance
Our model fair76.6%23.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−32877%————
WSHWashington Wizards+32823%————
SpreadGS by 10.3
GSGolden State Warriors−10.3our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 10.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 4%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%
← GS wins byWSH wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more69%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more53%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
Washington Wizards
GTrae Youngstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GWill Rileystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FJulian Reesestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·WSH
Mar 15 at NY
last game
Mar 14 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 16, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementProbable
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · right hamstring; injury managementOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHLeaky Black · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
GS·WSH
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−1.22
115.1
points / game
112.7
114.4
points allowed / game
123.7
32−35
season record
16−50
19−15
home record
11−22
13−20
away record
5−28
L5
streak
L11
2−8
last 10
0−10
45.9
FG%
46.0
35.6
3P%
35.3
42.9
rebounds / game
42.9
29.1
assists / game
25.1
15.4
turnovers / game
15.7
44.2
points in paint / game
47.3

Rating Trend

GS · WSH · 132 days
Golden State WarriorsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WSH 1−7
Jan 18, 2025at GSGS 122 − 114
Nov 4, 2024at WSHGS 125 − 112
Feb 27, 2024at WSHGS 123 − 112
Dec 22, 2023at GSGS 129 − 118
Feb 13, 2023at GSGS 135 − 126
Jan 16, 2023at WSHGS 127 − 118
Mar 27, 2022at WSHWSH 123 − 115
Mar 14, 2022at GSGS 126 − 112

GS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L

WSH · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 14at BOS100 − 111L
Mar 12at ORL131 − 136L
Mar 10at MIA129 − 150L
Mar 8at NO118 − 138L
Mar 5vs UTAH112 − 122L
Mar 3at ORL109 − 126L
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L