bayesRatings

Wizards at Pelicans

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final WSH 118 – NO 138
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH35302825118
NO32353536138
Team box
WSH·NO
41-91
field goals
47-89
14-42
3-pointers
7-23
22-27
free throws
37-47
41
rebounds
44
27
assists
25
17
turnovers
8
44
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO292454
Saddiq BeyNO2923102
Tre JohnsonWSH222041
Zion WilliamsonNO232021
Dejounte MurrayNO241962
Will RileyWSH251930

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +23
WSH +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 23 · WSH 8lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 34%, NO 66% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
NO by 6.8
Expected score
NO 121.8 – 114.9 WSH
Expected total
236.7
WizardsThe matchupPelicans
+197Our fair odds−197
114.9Expected points121.8
−1.15Power rating−0.63
112.2Points / game115.2
123.0Allowed / game120.2
46.0FG%46.4
35.33P%34.3
43.0Rebounds / game43.9
16−46Season record20−45
2−8Last 105−5
Anthony Davis · Cam Whitmore
D'Angelo Russell · Jamir Watkins
Kyshawn GeorgeOutHunter Dickinson · Josh Oduro
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NO chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+19734%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−19766%————
SpreadNO by 6.8
WSHWashington Wizards+6.8our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.7
Over236.7our total————
Under236.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 6.8 expected
Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← WSH wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more58%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more43%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.7 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Washington Wizards
GTrae Youngstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
FLeaky Blackstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NO
Mar 5 vs UTAH
last game
Mar 6 at PHX
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHJamir Watkins · left ankle; ; foot; sprainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · left thigh; contusionOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
WSH·NO
−1.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.63
112.2
points / game
115.2
123.0
points allowed / game
120.2
16−46
season record
20−45
11−22
home record
11−21
5−24
away record
9−24
L7
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.0
FG%
46.4
35.3
3P%
34.3
43.0
rebounds / game
43.9
25.0
assists / game
25.1
15.5
turnovers / game
14.4
47.5
points in paint / game
57.5

Rating Trend

WSH · NO · 124 days
Washington WizardsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 7−2
Jan 9at WSHNO 128 − 107
Jan 5, 2025at WSHNO 110 − 98
Jan 3, 2025at NONO 132 − 120
Feb 14, 2024at NONO 133 − 126
Dec 13, 2023at WSHNO 142 − 122
Jan 28, 2023at NOWSH 113 − 103
Jan 9, 2023at WSHNO 132 − 112
Nov 24, 2021at NONO 127 − 102
Nov 15, 2021at WSHWSH 105 − 100

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Mar 5vs UTAH112 − 122L
Mar 3at ORL109 − 126L
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W
Feb 11at CLE113 − 138L

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L