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Pelicans at Suns

NBA · Friday, Mar 6 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final NO 116 – PHX 118
← NBA / Mar 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO29232935116
PHX26323426118
Team box
NO·PHX
37-83
field goals
40-90
10-28
3-pointers
20-58
32-37
free throws
18-26
42
rebounds
41
18
assists
27
15
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX353244
Jalen GreenPHX312553
Trey Murphy IIINO412224
Zion WilliamsonNO3419103
Saddiq BeyNO341960
Dejounte MurrayNO301585

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +14
NO +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 14 · NO 7lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 30%, PHX 70% · Updated Mar 6

Expected margin
PHX by 7.1
Expected score
PHX 118.0 – 110.9 NO
Expected total
228.9
PelicansThe matchupSuns
+233Our fair odds−233
110.9Expected points118.0
−0.63Power rating+0.05
115.1Points / game112.0
120.2Allowed / game111.1
46.4FG%45.4
34.23P%35.8
43.9Rebounds / game43.5
20−44Season record35−27
6−4Last 104−6
Hunter Dickinson · Josh Oduro
Trey AlexanderOut (3 each)Dillon Brooks · Jordan Goodwin
Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · PHX chance
Our model fair30.0%70.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+23330%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−23370%————
SpreadPHX by 7.1
NONew Orleans Pelicans+7.1our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−7.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 7.1 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%
← NO wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more59%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more44%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·PHX
Mar 5 at SAC
last game
Mar 5 vs CHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
2
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 6, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXRoyce O'Neale · right foot; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
NO·PHX
−0.63
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
115.1
points / game
112.0
120.2
points allowed / game
111.1
20−44
season record
35−27
11−21
home record
20−13
9−23
away record
15−14
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
46.4
FG%
45.4
34.2
3P%
35.8
43.9
rebounds / game
43.5
25.2
assists / game
24.6
14.4
turnovers / game
14.9
57.5
points in paint / game
43.5

Rating Trend

NO · PHX · 122 days
New Orleans PelicansPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at NOPHX 123 − 114
Dec 26, 2025at NOPHX 115 − 108
Nov 10, 2025at PHXPHX 121 − 98
Feb 28, 2025at PHXPHX 125 − 108
Feb 27, 2025at PHXNO 124 − 116
Dec 5, 2024at NONO 126 − 124
Apr 7, 2024at PHXNO 113 − 105
Apr 1, 2024at NOPHX 124 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at NOPHX 123 − 109
Dec 17, 2022at PHXPHX 118 − 114

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 5vs CHI103 − 105L
Mar 3at SAC114 − 103W
Feb 26vs LAL113 − 110W
Feb 24vs BOS81 − 97L
Feb 22vs POR77 − 92L
Feb 21vs ORL113 − 110W
Feb 19at SA94 − 121L
Feb 11vs OKC109 − 136L
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L