bayesRatings

Pelicans at Kings

NBA · Thursday, Mar 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final NO 133 – SAC 123
← NBA / Mar 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO26413828133
SAC30332832123
Team box
NO·SAC
49-98
field goals
50-99
12-34
3-pointers
8-31
23-27
free throws
15-23
52
rebounds
42
27
assists
29
12
turnovers
7
68
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Precious AchiuwaSAC4129125
Zion WilliamsonNO292395
Trey Murphy IIINO322174
Saddiq BeyNO332010
Russell WestbrookSAC3419210
Malik MonkSAC301814

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +17
NO +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 9 · NO 17lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 48%, SAC 52% · Updated Mar 5

Expected margin
SAC by 0.2
Expected score
SAC 117.9 – 117.8 NO
Expected total
235.7
PelicansThe matchupKings
+107Our fair odds−107
117.8Expected points117.9
−0.63Power rating−0.74
114.9Points / game110.2
120.2Allowed / game121.1
46.3FG%46.2
34.23P%33.5
43.8Rebounds / game41.6
19−44Season record14−49
6−4Last 102−8
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey AlexanderOutDe'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · SAC chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10748%————
SACSacramento Kings−10752%————
SpreadSAC by 0.2
NONew Orleans Pelicans+0.2our margin————
SACSacramento Kings−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.7
Over235.7our total————
Under235.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Sacramento Kings by 0.2 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%
← NO wins bySAC wins by →
Sacramento Kings wins by 5 or more41%
Sacramento Kings wins by 10 or more27%
Sacramento Kings wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.7 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CYves Missistarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·SAC
Mar 3 at LAL
last game
Mar 3 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 5, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · return to competition reconditioningOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · neck; spasmQuestionable
NOZion Williamson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
NO·SAC
−0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.74
114.9
points / game
110.2
120.2
points allowed / game
121.1
19−44
season record
14−49
11−21
home record
9−21
8−23
away record
5−28
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
2−8
46.3
FG%
46.2
34.2
3P%
33.5
43.8
rebounds / game
41.6
25.2
assists / game
25.2
14.4
turnovers / game
14.5
57.4
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

NO · SAC · 121 days
New Orleans PelicansSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 3−7
Feb 9at NONO 120 − 94
Feb 13, 2025at NONO 140 − 133
Feb 12, 2025at NOSAC 119 − 111
Feb 8, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 118
Dec 12, 2024at NOSAC 111 − 109
Apr 11, 2024at SACNO 135 − 123
Jan 7, 2024at SACNO 133 − 100
Dec 4, 2023at SACNO 127 − 117
Nov 22, 2023at NONO 117 − 112
Nov 20, 2023at NONO 129 − 93

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L
Feb 26at DAL130 − 121W
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L
Feb 9at NO94 − 120L
Feb 7vs CLE126 − 132L