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Wizards at Heat

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 10 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final WSH 129 – MIA 150
← NBA / Mar 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH29333532129
MIA40363737150
Team box
WSH·MIA
46-89
field goals
45-90
15-36
3-pointers
13-43
22-29
free throws
47-59
35
rebounds
48
25
assists
31
24
turnovers
17
50
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA428393
Alex SarrWSH202861
Will RileyWSH402242
Simone FontecchioMIA221861
Tre JohnsonWSH231722
Jaden HardyWSH231710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +28
WSH +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 28 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 17%, MIA 83% · Updated Mar 10

Expected margin
MIA by 14.8
Expected score
MIA 124.8 – 109.9 WSH
Expected total
234.7
WizardsThe matchupHeat
+476Our fair odds−476
109.9Expected points124.8
−1.22Power rating+0.19
112.3Points / game120.1
123.3Allowed / game116.5
46.0FG%46.5
35.23P%36.0
43.0Rebounds / game47.2
16−47Season record36−29
2−8Last 108−2
Anthony Davis · Cam Whitmore
D'Angelo Russell · Jamir Watkins
Kyshawn GeorgeOut (5 each)Andrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Kel'el Ware · Nikola Jovic
Norman Powell

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair17.4%82.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+47617%————
MIAMiami Heat−47683%————
SpreadMIA by 14.8
WSHWashington Wizards+14.8our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−14.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.7
Over234.7our total————
Under234.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 14.8 expected
Washington Wizards by 53 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 52 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 51 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 50 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 3%Miami Heat by 17 points: 3%Miami Heat by 18 points: 3%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 2%Miami Heat by 25 points: 2%Miami Heat by 26 points: 2%Miami Heat by 27 points: 2%Miami Heat by 28 points: 2%Miami Heat by 29 points: 2%Miami Heat by 30 points: 2%Miami Heat by 31 points: 2%Miami Heat by 32 points: 2%Miami Heat by 33 points: 2%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 38 points: 1%Miami Heat by 39 points: 1%Miami Heat by 40 points: 1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 52 points: <1%Miami Heat by 53 points: <1%
← WSH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more78%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more65%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more49%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.7 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
GWill Rileystarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·MIA
Mar 8 at NO
last game
Mar 8 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
WSHJamir Watkins · left ankle; ; foot; sprainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHTrae Young · right knee; injury managementOut
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKel'el Ware · right shoulder; strainOut
MIANikola Jovic · low back; injury managementOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left quadriceps; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
WSH·MIA
−1.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
112.3
points / game
120.1
123.3
points allowed / game
116.5
16−47
season record
36−29
11−22
home record
21−11
5−25
away record
15−18
L8
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
8−2
46.0
FG%
46.5
35.2
3P%
36.0
43.0
rebounds / game
47.2
25.1
assists / game
28.7
15.5
turnovers / game
14.0
47.5
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

WSH · MIA · 126 days
Washington WizardsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Feb 8at WSHMIA 132 − 101
Apr 13, 2025at MIAWSH 119 − 118
Mar 31, 2025at WSHMIA 120 − 94
Mar 3, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 90
Nov 2, 2024at WSHMIA 118 − 98
Mar 31, 2024at WSHMIA 119 − 107
Mar 10, 2024at MIAWSH 110 − 108
Feb 2, 2024at WSHMIA 110 − 102
Nov 3, 2023at MIAMIA 121 − 114
Apr 7, 2023at WSHWSH 114 − 108

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Mar 8at NO118 − 138L
Mar 5vs UTAH112 − 122L
Mar 3at ORL109 − 126L
Mar 2vs HOU118 − 123L
Feb 28vs TOR125 − 134L
Feb 26at ATL96 − 126L
Feb 24at ATL98 − 119L
Feb 22vs CHA112 − 129L
Feb 20vs IND131 − 118W
Feb 19vs IND112 − 105W

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W
Feb 26at PHI117 − 124L
Feb 24at MIL117 − 128L
Feb 21vs MEM136 − 120W
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W