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Warriors at Knicks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 15 · 7:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final GS 107 – NY 110
← NBA / Mar 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS35192627107
NY21243827110
Team box
GS·NY
40-82
field goals
39-84
14-38
3-pointers
10-32
13-15
free throws
22-23
35
rebounds
44
27
assists
23
18
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY363019
Brandin PodziemskiGS372556
Quinten PostGS352233
Gui SantosGS322077
Gary Payton IIGS281964
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3117122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +21
GS +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 7 · GS 21lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 37%, NY 63% · Updated Mar 15

Expected margin
NY by 4.7
Expected score
NY 114.1 – 109.5 GS
Expected total
223.6
WarriorsThe matchupKnicks
+173Our fair odds−173
109.5Expected points114.1
+0.17Power rating+0.54
115.2Points / game117.1
114.4Allowed / game110.7
45.8FG%47.3
35.63P%37.2
43.0Rebounds / game46.4
32−34Season record44−25
3−7Last 106−4
Al Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Draymond Green · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps PorzingisOutMiles McBride

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · NY chance
Our model fair36.6%63.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+17337%————
NYNew York Knicks−17363%————
SpreadNY by 4.7
GSGolden State Warriors+4.7our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.6
Over223.6our total————
Under223.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 4.7 expected
Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%
← GS wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more53%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more38%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FMalevy Leonsstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·NY
Mar 13 vs MIN
last game
Mar 13 at IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 15, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illness managementOut
GSMoses Moody · right wrist; sprainOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; strainOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSQuinten Post · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
New York Knicks
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYKevin McCullar Jr. · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
NYTrey Jemison III · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYJeremy Sochan · illness; illnessProbable
NYJosh Hart · left knee; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
GS·NY
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
115.2
points / game
117.1
114.4
points allowed / game
110.7
32−34
season record
44−25
19−15
home record
24−9
13−19
away record
20−16
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
45.8
FG%
47.3
35.6
3P%
37.2
43.0
rebounds / game
46.4
29.2
assists / game
27.4
15.3
turnovers / game
13.7
44.2
points in paint / game
47.4

Rating Trend

GS · NY · 131 days
Golden State WarriorsNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NY 3−6
Jan 15at GSGS 126 − 113
Mar 15, 2025at GSGS 97 − 94
Mar 4, 2025at NYGS 114 − 102
Mar 18, 2024at GSNY 119 − 112
Feb 29, 2024at NYGS 110 − 99
Dec 20, 2022at NYNY 132 − 94
Nov 18, 2022at GSGS 111 − 101
Feb 10, 2022at GSNY 116 − 114
Dec 14, 2021at NYGS 105 − 96

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Mar 13vs MIN117 − 127L
Mar 10vs CHI124 − 130L
Mar 9at UTAH116 − 119L
Mar 7at OKC97 − 104L
Mar 5at HOU115 − 113W
Mar 2vs LAC101 − 114L
Feb 28vs LAL101 − 129L
Feb 25at MEM133 − 112W
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 13at IND101 − 92W
Mar 11at UTAH134 − 117W
Mar 9at LAC118 − 126L
Mar 8at LAL97 − 110L
Mar 6at DEN142 − 103W
Mar 4vs OKC100 − 103L
Mar 3at TOR111 − 95W
Mar 1vs SA114 − 89W
Feb 27at MIL127 − 98W
Feb 24at CLE94 − 109L