bayesRatings

Knicks at Clippers

NBA · Monday, Mar 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final NY 118 – LAC 126
← NBA / Mar 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY24312637118
LAC28362438126
Team box
NY·LAC
46-90
field goals
43-93
14-40
3-pointers
18-39
12-16
free throws
22-26
51
rebounds
36
32
assists
25
20
turnovers
8
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3635127
Kawhi LeonardLAC352978
Jalen BrunsonNY382848
Bennedict MathurinLAC362871
Darius GarlandLAC302317
OG AnunobyNY372262

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +15
NY +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 15 · NY 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 54%, LAC 46% · Updated Mar 9

Expected margin
NY by 1.6
Expected score
NY 111.0 – 109.5 LAC
Expected total
220.5
KnicksThe matchupClippers
−119Our fair odds+119
111.0Expected points109.5
+0.53Power rating+0.19
117.0Points / game112.6
110.7Allowed / game112.2
47.2FG%48.2
37.33P%35.8
46.3Rebounds / game41.1
42−24Season record31−32
6−4Last 106−4
Dillon Jones · Miles McBride
Mitchell RobinsonOut (3 each)Bradley Beal · John Collins
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · LAC chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−11954%————
LACLA Clippers+11946%————
SpreadNY by 1.6
NYNew York Knicks−1.6our margin————
LACLA Clippers+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.5
Over220.5our total————
Under220.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 1.6 expected
New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%
← NY wins byLAC wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more44%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more30%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.5 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·LAC
Mar 8 at LAL
last game
Mar 7 at MEM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 9, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayOut
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACJohn Collins · neck; strainOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
NY·LAC
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
117.0
points / game
112.6
110.7
points allowed / game
112.2
42−24
season record
31−32
24−9
home record
16−13
18−15
away record
15−19
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.2
FG%
48.2
37.3
3P%
35.8
46.3
rebounds / game
41.1
27.3
assists / game
23.4
13.6
turnovers / game
14.6
47.3
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

NY · LAC · 125 days
New York KnicksLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAC 5−4
Jan 7at NYNY 123 − 111
Mar 26, 2025at NYLAC 126 − 113
Mar 7, 2025at LACLAC 105 − 95
Dec 16, 2023at LACLAC 144 − 122
Nov 6, 2023at NYNY 111 − 97
Mar 11, 2023at LACLAC 106 − 95
Feb 4, 2023at NYLAC 134 − 128
Mar 6, 2022at LACNY 116 − 93
Jan 23, 2022at NYNY 110 − 102

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 8at LAL97 − 110L
Mar 6at DEN142 − 103W
Mar 4vs OKC100 − 103L
Mar 3at TOR111 − 95W
Mar 1vs SA114 − 89W
Feb 27at MIL127 − 98W
Feb 24at CLE94 − 109L
Feb 22at CHI105 − 99W
Feb 21vs HOU108 − 106W
Feb 19vs DET111 − 126L

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 7at MEM123 − 120W
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W
Mar 2at GS114 − 101W
Mar 1vs NO137 − 117W
Feb 26vs MIN88 − 94L
Feb 22vs ORL109 − 111L
Feb 20at LAL122 − 125L
Feb 19vs DEN115 − 114W
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W