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Celtics at Thunder

NBA · Thursday, Mar 12 · 8:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final BOS 102 – OKC 104
← NBA / Mar 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS28312419102
OKC27292424104
Team box
BOS·OKC
35-87
field goals
40-84
13-42
3-pointers
11-44
19-20
free throws
13-17
44
rebounds
39
20
assists
22
13
turnovers
12
34
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC393569
Jaylen BrownBOS413467
Ajay MitchellOKC301546
Chet HolmgrenOKC281490
Payton PritchardBOS391444
Baylor ScheiermanBOS341175

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +12
BOS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 7 · BOS 12lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 38%, OKC 62% · Updated Mar 12

Expected margin
OKC by 3.1
Expected score
OKC 110.0 – 106.9 BOS
Expected total
216.8
CelticsThe matchupThunder
+165Our fair odds−165
106.9Expected points110.0
+0.84Power rating+1.17
114.5Points / game118.8
107.2Allowed / game107.9
46.6FG%48.3
36.43P%36.2
46.3Rebounds / game43.8
43−22Season record51−15
7−3Last 109−1
Jayson Tatum · John Tonje
Nikola VucevicOutBranden Carlson · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · OKC chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics+16538%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16562%————
SpreadOKC by 3.1
BOSBoston Celtics+3.1our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.8
Over216.8our total————
Under216.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 3.1 expected
Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%
← BOS wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more49%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more34%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.8 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.570%
Total over 216.550%
Total over 226.531%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·OKC
Mar 10 at SA
last game
Mar 9 vs DEN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 12, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; injury managementOut
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
BOSDerrick White · right knee; contusionQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left calf; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
BOS·OKC
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
+1.17
114.5
points / game
118.8
107.2
points allowed / game
107.9
43−22
season record
51−15
21−10
home record
27−7
22−12
away record
24−8
L1
streak
W6
7−3
last 10
9−1
46.6
FG%
48.3
36.4
3P%
36.2
46.3
rebounds / game
43.8
24.5
assists / game
25.5
12.1
turnovers / game
12.6
43.8
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

BOS · OKC · 128 days
Boston CelticsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · OKC 4−4
Mar 12, 2025at BOSOKC 118 − 112
Jan 5, 2025at OKCOKC 105 − 92
Apr 3, 2024at BOSBOS 135 − 100
Jan 2, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 123
Jan 3, 2023at OKCOKC 150 − 117
Nov 14, 2022at BOSBOS 126 − 122
Mar 21, 2022at OKCBOS 132 − 123
Nov 20, 2021at BOSBOS 111 − 105

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W
Mar 4vs CHA89 − 118L
Mar 2at MIL108 − 81W
Mar 1vs PHI114 − 98W
Feb 27vs BKN148 − 111W
Feb 25at DEN84 − 103L
Feb 24at PHX97 − 81W
Feb 22at LAL111 − 89W

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W