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Raptors at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Mar 20 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final TOR 115 – DEN 121
← NBA / Mar 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR30234121115
DEN27302836121
Team box
TOR·DEN
44-86
field goals
44-81
10-31
3-pointers
14-30
17-23
free throws
19-25
40
rebounds
38
32
assists
26
10
turnovers
10
50
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN403156
Jakob PoeltlTOR3523112
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN282340
Nikola JokicDEN372289
Brandon IngramTOR361952
RJ BarrettTOR341852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +11
TOR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 6 · TOR 11lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 35%, DEN 65% · Updated Mar 20

Expected margin
DEN by 4.6
Expected score
DEN 117.8 – 113.2 TOR
Expected total
230.9
RaptorsThe matchupNuggets
+182Our fair odds−182
113.2Expected points117.8
+0.01Power rating+0.43
114.0Points / game120.7
111.8Allowed / game116.5
47.5FG%49.4
34.73P%39.1
42.5Rebounds / game43.4
39−29Season record42−28
5−5Last 105−5
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky HepburnOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton Watson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DEN chance
Our model fair35.4%64.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+18235%————
DENDenver Nuggets−18265%————
SpreadDEN by 4.6
TORToronto Raptors+4.6our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.9
Over230.9our total————
Under230.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%
← TOR wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more53%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more37%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.9 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.531%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DEN
Mar 18 at CHI
last game
Mar 18 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 20, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainDoubtful
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
TOR·DEN
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
114.0
points / game
120.7
111.8
points allowed / game
116.5
39−29
season record
42−28
19−16
home record
19−13
20−13
away record
23−15
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
47.5
FG%
49.4
34.7
3P%
39.1
42.5
rebounds / game
43.4
28.8
assists / game
28.4
13.8
turnovers / game
13.1
51.9
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

TOR · DEN · 136 days
Toronto RaptorsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 7−2
Dec 31, 2025at TORDEN 106 − 103
Nov 4, 2024at DENDEN 121 − 119
Oct 28, 2024at TORDEN 127 − 125
Mar 11, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 119
Dec 20, 2023at TORDEN 113 − 104
Mar 14, 2023at TORTOR 125 − 110
Mar 6, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 113
Mar 12, 2022at DENTOR 127 − 115
Feb 12, 2022at TORDEN 110 − 109

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W
Mar 13vs PHX122 − 115W
Mar 11at NO111 − 122L
Mar 10at HOU99 − 113L
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L