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Raptors at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final TOR 111 – NO 122
← NBA / Mar 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR30282528111
NO29313329122
Team box
TOR·NO
39-94
field goals
45-88
14-44
3-pointers
14-29
19-25
free throws
18-24
43
rebounds
49
20
assists
27
11
turnovers
16
42
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO342873
Dejounte MurrayNO312756
Immanuel QuickleyTOR342563
Brandon IngramTOR382265
Zion WilliamsonNO321964
RJ BarrettTOR281671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +18
TOR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 18 · TOR 7lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 60%, NO 40% · Updated Mar 11

Expected margin
TOR by 3.3
Expected score
TOR 116.7 – 113.4 NO
Expected total
230.1
RaptorsThe matchupPelicans
−153Our fair odds+153
116.7Expected points113.4
+0.01Power rating−0.60
113.5Points / game115.5
111.7Allowed / game120.2
47.3FG%46.5
34.53P%34.2
42.4Rebounds / game43.9
36−28Season record21−45
4−6Last 106−4
A.J. Lawson · Chucky Hepburn
Collin Murray-BoylesOutBryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NO chance
Our model fair60.5%39.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−15360%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+15340%————
SpreadTOR by 3.3
TORToronto Raptors−3.3our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.1
Over230.1our total————
Under230.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 3.3 expected
Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%
← TOR wins byNO wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more49%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more34%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.1 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.548%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NO
Mar 10 at HOU
last game
Mar 8 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 11, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainOut
TORJakob Poeltl · illness; illnessQuestionable
TORTrayce Jackson-Davis · right hand; middle finger - dislocationQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
TOR·NO
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
113.5
points / game
115.5
111.7
points allowed / game
120.2
36−28
season record
21−45
17−16
home record
12−21
19−12
away record
9−24
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
47.3
FG%
46.5
34.5
3P%
34.2
42.4
rebounds / game
43.9
29.0
assists / game
25.1
13.8
turnovers / game
14.3
51.7
points in paint / game
57.7

Rating Trend

TOR · NO · 127 days
Toronto RaptorsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 4−4
Jan 27, 2025at TORTOR 113 − 104
Nov 27, 2024at NOTOR 119 − 93
Mar 5, 2024at TORNO 139 − 98
Feb 5, 2024at NONO 138 − 100
Feb 23, 2023at TORTOR 115 − 110
Nov 30, 2022at NONO 126 − 108
Feb 14, 2022at NONO 120 − 90
Jan 9, 2022at TORTOR 105 − 101

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 10at HOU99 − 113L
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L