bayesRatings

Raptors at Bulls

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 18 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final TOR 139 – CHI 109
← NBA / Mar 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR32403631139
CHI17283133109
Team box
TOR·CHI
48-84
field goals
40-85
14-33
3-pointers
9-31
29-33
free throws
20-28
43
rebounds
36
33
assists
24
18
turnovers
19
60
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR272342
Matas BuzelisCHI311971
Scottie BarnesTOR251873
Brandon IngramTOR291854
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR211841
Jakob PoeltlTOR211782

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +38
TOR +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 0 · TOR 38lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 54%, CHI 46% · Updated Mar 18

Expected margin
TOR by 1.5
Expected score
TOR 116.6 – 115.1 CHI
Expected total
231.7
RaptorsThe matchupBulls
−116Our fair odds+116
116.6Expected points115.1
+0.01Power rating−0.33
113.6Points / game116.0
111.9Allowed / game120.0
47.3FG%46.9
34.63P%36.2
42.5Rebounds / game45.1
38−29Season record28−40
4−6Last 104−6
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky HepburnOutAnfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Mac McClung · Noa Essengue
Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHI chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−11654%————
CHIChicago Bulls+11646%————
SpreadTOR by 1.5
TORToronto Raptors−1.5our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.7
Over231.7our total————
Under231.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 1.5 expected
Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%
← TOR wins byCHI wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more44%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more30%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.7 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
FLeonard Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHI
Mar 15 vs DET
last game
Mar 16 vs MEM
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 17, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainDoubtful
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHIIsaac Okoro · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeDoubtful
CHICollin Sexton · left fibular head; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
TOR·CHI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
113.6
points / game
116.0
111.9
points allowed / game
120.0
38−29
season record
28−40
19−16
home record
17−18
19−13
away record
11−22
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
47.3
FG%
46.9
34.6
3P%
36.2
42.5
rebounds / game
45.1
28.7
assists / game
28.8
13.7
turnovers / game
15.0
51.7
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

TOR · CHI · 134 days
Toronto RaptorsChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 6−4
Feb 19at CHITOR 110 − 101
Feb 5at TORTOR 123 − 107
Apr 1, 2025at CHICHI 137 − 118
Feb 28, 2025at CHICHI 125 − 115
Jan 31, 2025at TORCHI 122 − 106
Dec 16, 2024at TORCHI 122 − 121
Jan 30, 2024at CHITOR 118 − 107
Jan 18, 2024at TORCHI 116 − 110
Nov 24, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 108
Oct 27, 2023at CHICHI 104 − 103

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W
Mar 13vs PHX122 − 115W
Mar 11at NO111 − 122L
Mar 10at HOU99 − 113L
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L
Feb 28at WSH134 − 125W
Feb 25vs SA107 − 110L
Feb 24vs OKC107 − 116L

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 16vs MEM132 − 107W
Mar 13at LAC108 − 119L
Mar 12at LAL130 − 142L
Mar 10at GS130 − 124W
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L
Mar 5at PHX105 − 103W
Mar 3vs OKC108 − 116L
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W
Feb 26vs POR112 − 121L
Feb 24vs CHA99 − 131L