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Mavericks at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final DAL 135 – DEN 142
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL33264135135
DEN34344331142
Team box
DAL·DEN
48-97
field goals
50-89
12-35
3-pointers
19-38
27-34
free throws
23-29
42
rebounds
45
31
assists
36
4
turnovers
9
56
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN415364
Cooper FlaggDAL362687
Nikola JokicDEN38232119
Naji MarshallDAL302243
Peyton WatsonDEN232143
P.J. WashingtonDAL3119151

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +13
DAL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 13 · DAL 4lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 24%, DEN 76% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
DEN by 9.4
Expected score
DEN 123.5 – 114.1 DAL
Expected total
237.7
MavericksThe matchupNuggets
+316Our fair odds−316
114.1Expected points123.5
−0.50Power rating+0.46
113.8Points / game120.9
119.0Allowed / game116.5
47.1FG%49.5
34.03P%39.2
44.7Rebounds / game43.4
23−49Season record45−28
2−8Last 106−4
Caleb Martin · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair24.1%75.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+31624%————
DENDenver Nuggets−31676%————
SpreadDEN by 9.4
DALDallas Mavericks+9.4our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−9.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.7
Over237.7our total————
Under237.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 9.4 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 52 points: <1%
← DAL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more65%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more50%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.7 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·DEN
Mar 23 vs GS
last game
Mar 24 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · concussion protocolQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right shoulder; sprainQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayProbable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
DAL·DEN
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
113.8
points / game
120.9
119.0
points allowed / game
116.5
23−49
season record
45−28
14−23
home record
21−13
9−26
away record
24−15
L4
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
47.1
FG%
49.5
34.0
3P%
39.2
44.7
rebounds / game
43.4
25.3
assists / game
28.5
15.0
turnovers / game
13.0
53.5
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

DAL · DEN · 141 days
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 6−4
Jan 14at DALDEN 118 − 109
Dec 23, 2025at DALDAL 131 − 130
Dec 1, 2025at DENDAL 131 − 121
Jan 14, 2025at DALDEN 118 − 99
Jan 12, 2025at DALDEN 112 − 101
Nov 22, 2024at DENDAL 123 − 120
Nov 10, 2024at DENDEN 122 − 120
Mar 17, 2024at DALDAL 107 − 105
Dec 18, 2023at DENDEN 130 − 104
Nov 3, 2023at DENDEN 125 − 114

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L