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Mavericks at Pelicans

NBA · Monday, Mar 16 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final DAL 111 – NO 129
← NBA / Mar 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL26283225111
NO32353626129
Team box
DAL·NO
44-104
field goals
48-95
14-39
3-pointers
11-35
9-14
free throws
22-34
51
rebounds
57
27
assists
31
12
turnovers
14
58
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Naji MarshallDAL333287
Zion WilliamsonNO292741
Saddiq BeyNO352363
Cooper FlaggDAL302178
P.J. WashingtonDAL311872
Trey Murphy IIINO331777

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +19
DAL +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 19 · DAL 10lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 50%, NO 50% · Updated Mar 16

Expected margin
NO by 0.6
Expected score
NO 117.6 – 117.0 DAL
Expected total
234.7
MavericksThe matchupPelicans
+101Our fair odds−101
117.0Expected points117.6
−0.43Power rating−0.60
113.2Points / game115.4
118.1Allowed / game119.8
47.0FG%46.5
33.73P%34.5
44.8Rebounds / game44.0
23−45Season record22−46
2−8Last 106−4
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutBryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NO chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+10150%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−10150%————
SpreadNO by 0.6
DALDallas Mavericks+0.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.7
Over234.7our total————
Under234.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 0.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%
← DAL wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more42%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more28%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.7 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NO
Mar 15 at CLE
last game
Mar 13 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 16, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALKlay Thompson · rest - restDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; sorenessQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NODejounte Murray · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
DAL·NO
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
113.2
points / game
115.4
118.1
points allowed / game
119.8
23−45
season record
22−46
14−20
home record
13−21
9−25
away record
9−25
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
47.0
FG%
46.5
33.7
3P%
34.5
44.8
rebounds / game
44.0
25.1
assists / game
25.1
14.9
turnovers / game
14.3
53.1
points in paint / game
57.4

Rating Trend

DAL · NO · 132 days
Dallas MavericksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 5−5
Dec 22, 2025at NONO 119 − 113
Nov 21, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 115
Nov 5, 2025at DALNO 101 − 99
Feb 21, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 103
Jan 29, 2025at NODAL 137 − 136
Jan 15, 2025at NONO 119 − 116
Nov 19, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 91
Jan 15, 2024at DALDAL 125 − 120
Jan 13, 2024at DALNO 118 − 108
Nov 14, 2023at NONO 131 − 110

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W