bayesRatings

Mavericks at Cavaliers

NBA · Sunday, Mar 15 · 2:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final DAL 130 – CLE 120
← NBA / Mar 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL35254030130
CLE31282734120
Team box
DAL·CLE
46-87
field goals
45-88
15-30
3-pointers
16-41
23-27
free throws
14-21
44
rebounds
38
35
assists
32
13
turnovers
16
52
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL3327610
Donovan MitchellCLE3926111
Naji MarshallDAL322557
Max StrusCLE232481
P.J. WashingtonDAL3320112
Evan MobleyCLE3618114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +21
DAL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 2 · DAL 21lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 24%, CLE 76% · Updated Mar 15

Expected margin
CLE by 10.3
Expected score
CLE 121.4 – 111.0 DAL
Expected total
232.4
MavericksThe matchupCavaliers
+325Our fair odds−325
111.0Expected points121.4
−0.43Power rating+0.59
112.9Points / game119.1
118.0Allowed / game114.6
46.9FG%47.9
33.53P%36.4
44.9Rebounds / game44.3
22−45Season record41−26
1−9Last 105−5
Daniel Gafford · Dereck Lively II
Klay Thompson · Kyrie Irving
Moussa CisseOut (5 each)Craig Porter Jr. · Jarrett Allen
Jaylon Tyson · Sam Merrill
Tyrese Proctor

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair23.6%76.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+32524%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−32576%————
SpreadCLE by 10.3
DALDallas Mavericks+10.3our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.4
Over232.4our total————
Under232.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 10.3 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 51 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 52 points: <1%
← DAL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more67%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more52%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.4 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GKeon Ellisstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CLE
Mar 13 vs CLE
last game
Mar 13 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 15, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDaniel Gafford · illness; illnessOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKlay Thompson · rest - restOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left groin; strainOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; tendonitisOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left ankle; sorenessOut
CLESam Merrill · left hamstring; tightnessOut
CLETyrese Proctor · right quadricep; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 67+ games
DAL·CLE
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
112.9
points / game
119.1
118.0
points allowed / game
114.6
22−45
season record
41−26
14−20
home record
22−12
8−25
away record
19−14
L1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
5−5
46.9
FG%
47.9
33.5
3P%
36.4
44.9
rebounds / game
44.3
24.9
assists / game
28.3
14.9
turnovers / game
14.1
53.1
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

DAL · CLE · 131 days
Dallas MavericksCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CLE 8−1
Mar 13at DALCLE 138 − 105
Feb 2, 2025at CLECLE 144 − 101
Jan 3, 2025at DALCLE 134 − 122
Feb 27, 2024at CLECLE 121 − 119
Dec 27, 2023at DALCLE 113 − 110
Dec 17, 2022at CLECLE 100 − 99
Dec 14, 2022at DALCLE 105 − 90
Mar 30, 2022at CLEDAL 120 − 112
Nov 29, 2021at DALCLE 114 − 96

DAL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L
Mar 1vs OKC87 − 100L
Feb 27vs MEM105 − 124L
Feb 26vs SAC121 − 130L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 13at DAL138 − 105W
Mar 11at ORL122 − 128L
Mar 9vs PHI115 − 101W
Mar 8vs BOS98 − 109L
Mar 3vs DET113 − 109W
Mar 1at BKN106 − 102W
Feb 27at DET119 − 122L
Feb 25at MIL116 − 118L
Feb 24vs NY109 − 94W
Feb 22at OKC113 − 121L