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Cavaliers at Magic

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 11 · 6:30 PM CT · Kia Center · Final CLE 122 – ORL 128
← NBA / Mar 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE35272733122
ORL38243432128
Team box
CLE·ORL
44-89
field goals
44-85
17-44
3-pointers
12-35
17-26
free throws
28-37
42
rebounds
42
24
assists
29
10
turnovers
6
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Desmond BaneORL363566
James HardenCLE373058
Paolo BancheroORL372587
Donovan MitchellCLE362555
Tristan da SilvaORL342343
Keon EllisCLE312041

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +13
CLE +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 13 · CLE 4lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 57%, ORL 43% · Updated Mar 11

Expected margin
CLE by 3.2
Expected score
CLE 114.8 – 111.6 ORL
Expected total
226.4
CavaliersThe matchupMagic
−132Our fair odds+132
114.8Expected points111.6
+0.59Power rating+0.12
118.7Points / game115.1
114.6Allowed / game113.6
47.6FG%46.4
36.23P%34.0
44.3Rebounds / game43.7
40−25Season record35−28
6−4Last 107−3
Jarrett Allen · Max Strus
Olivier Sarr · Tyrese ProctorOutAnthony Black · Franz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ORL chance
Our model fair57.0%43.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−13257%————
ORLOrlando Magic+13243%————
SpreadCLE by 3.2
CLECleveland Cavaliers−3.2our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.4
Over226.4our total————
Under226.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 3.2 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byORL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more49%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more34%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.4 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ORL
Mar 9 vs PHI
last game
Mar 8 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 10, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; tendonitisOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEOlivier Sarr · g league - two-wayOut
CLETyrese Proctor · right quadricep; strainOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
CLE·ORL
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
118.7
points / game
115.1
114.6
points allowed / game
113.6
40−25
season record
35−28
22−12
home record
20−12
18−13
away record
15−16
W1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.6
FG%
46.4
36.2
3P%
34.0
44.3
rebounds / game
43.7
28.3
assists / game
26.5
14.2
turnovers / game
13.8
50.6
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

CLE · ORL · 127 days
Cleveland CavaliersOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Jan 26at CLECLE 114 − 98
Jan 24at ORLCLE 119 − 105
Mar 16, 2025at CLEORL 108 − 103
Feb 25, 2025at ORLCLE 122 − 82
Nov 1, 2024at CLECLE 120 − 109
May 5, 2024at CLECLE 106 − 94post
May 3, 2024at ORLORL 103 − 96post
Apr 30, 2024at CLECLE 104 − 103post
Apr 27, 2024at ORLORL 112 − 89post
Apr 25, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 83post

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 9vs PHI115 − 101W
Mar 8vs BOS98 − 109L
Mar 3vs DET113 − 109W
Mar 1at BKN106 − 102W
Feb 27at DET119 − 122L
Feb 25at MIL116 − 118L
Feb 24vs NY109 − 94W
Feb 22at OKC113 − 121L
Feb 20at CHA118 − 113W
Feb 19vs BKN112 − 84W

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W