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Magic at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final ORL 130 – MIL 91
← NBA / Mar 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL25423330130
MIL1540152191
Team box
ORL·MIL
45-80
field goals
36-84
14-33
3-pointers
13-44
26-35
free throws
6-13
49
rebounds
36
31
assists
22
15
turnovers
17
54
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL293353
Jalen SuggsORL242032
Desmond BaneORL301859
Bobby PortisMIL2818103
Cam ThomasMIL201716
Ryan RollinsMIL231511

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +39
ORL +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 0 · ORL 39lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 51%, MIL 49% · Updated Mar 8

Expected margin
MIL by 0.0
Expected score
MIL 110.2 – 110.2 ORL
Expected total
220.5
MagicThe matchupBucks
−104Our fair odds+104
110.2Expected points110.2
+0.03Power rating−0.18
114.8Points / game111.4
114.0Allowed / game115.5
46.3FG%47.9
33.83P%38.8
43.6Rebounds / game41.3
34−28Season record27−35
6−4Last 105−5
Alex Morales · Colin Castleton
Franz WagnerOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Cormac Ryan
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−10451%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10449%————
SpreadMIL by 0.0
ORLOrlando MagicPKour margin————
MILMilwaukee BucksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 220.5
Over220.5our total————
Under220.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%
← ORL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more40%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more27%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.5 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·MIL
Mar 7 at MIN
last game
Mar 7 vs UTAH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 8, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLAnthony Black · low back; strainQuestionable
ORLJase Richardson · low back; spasmsQuestionable
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; strainQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILCormac Ryan · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; injury managementOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILKyle Kuzma · n/a; thoracic spine contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 62+ games
ORL·MIL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
114.8
points / game
111.4
114.0
points allowed / game
115.5
34−28
season record
27−35
20−12
home record
15−16
14−16
away record
12−19
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
46.3
FG%
47.9
33.8
3P%
38.8
43.6
rebounds / game
41.3
26.5
assists / game
26.0
13.7
turnovers / game
14.6
51.7
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

ORL · MIL · 124 days
Orlando MagicMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Feb 11at ORLMIL 116 − 108
Feb 9at ORLORL 118 − 99
Mar 8, 2025at MILORL 111 − 109
Jan 15, 2025at MILMIL 122 − 93
Jan 10, 2025at ORLMIL 109 − 106
Dec 10, 2024at MILMIL 114 − 109
Apr 14, 2024at ORLORL 113 − 88
Apr 10, 2024at MILMIL 117 − 99
Dec 21, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 114
Nov 11, 2023at ORLORL 112 − 97

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W
Mar 1vs DET92 − 106L
Feb 26vs HOU108 − 113L
Feb 24at LAL110 − 109W
Feb 22at LAC111 − 109W
Feb 21at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 19at SAC131 − 94W
Feb 11vs MIL108 − 116L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L
Mar 2vs BOS81 − 108L
Mar 1at CHI97 − 120L
Feb 27vs NY98 − 127L
Feb 25vs CLE118 − 116W
Feb 24vs MIA128 − 117W
Feb 22vs TOR94 − 122L
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W