bayesRatings

Pelicans at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Mar 13 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final NO 105 – HOU 107
← NBA / Mar 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO24252333105
HOU28292327107
Team box
NO·HOU
37-84
field goals
40-94
13-32
3-pointers
14-41
18-26
free throws
13-17
48
rebounds
52
19
assists
25
13
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dejounte MurrayNO313574
Kevin DurantHOU403265
Amen ThompsonHOU4023128
Zion WilliamsonNO342151
Reed SheppardHOU321853
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU381653

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +11
NO +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 11 · NO 4lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 23%, HOU 77% · Updated Mar 13

Expected margin
HOU by 10.5
Expected score
HOU 119.0 – 108.5 NO
Expected total
227.6
PelicansThe matchupRockets
+329Our fair odds−329
108.5Expected points119.0
−0.60Power rating+0.43
115.6Points / game114.2
120.0Allowed / game110.0
46.5FG%47.8
34.43P%36.7
44.0Rebounds / game48.2
22−45Season record40−25
7−3Last 106−4
Bryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey AlexanderOutFred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
JD Davison · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · HOU chance
Our model fair23.3%76.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+32923%————
HOUHouston Rockets−32977%————
SpreadHOU by 10.5
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10.5our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.6
Over227.6our total————
Under227.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 10.5 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%
← NO wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more68%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more53%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.6 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FDorian Finney-Smithstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·HOU
Mar 11 vs TOR
last game
Mar 11 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 13, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJD Davison · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · low back; painQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
NO·HOU
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
115.6
points / game
114.2
120.0
points allowed / game
110.0
22−45
season record
40−25
13−21
home record
22−8
9−24
away record
18−17
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
46.5
FG%
47.8
34.4
3P%
36.7
44.0
rebounds / game
48.2
25.1
assists / game
24.7
14.3
turnovers / game
15.7
57.5
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

NO · HOU · 129 days
New Orleans PelicansHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Jan 18at HOUHOU 119 − 110
Dec 18, 2025at NONO 133 − 128
Mar 8, 2025at HOUHOU 146 − 117
Mar 6, 2025at NOHOU 109 − 97
Dec 26, 2024at NOHOU 128 − 111
Dec 19, 2024at HOUHOU 133 − 113
Feb 22, 2024at NONO 127 − 105
Jan 31, 2024at HOUNO 110 − 99
Dec 23, 2023at NOHOU 106 − 104
Nov 10, 2023at HOUHOU 104 − 101

NO · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L
Feb 28at UTAH115 − 105W
Feb 26at UTAH129 − 118W
Feb 24vs GS113 − 109W
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W
Feb 28at MIA105 − 115L
Feb 26at ORL113 − 108W
Feb 25vs SAC128 − 97W
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W