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Clippers at Mavericks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final LAC 138 – DAL 131
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
LAC3231372216138
DAL423027239131
Team box
LAC·DAL
51-90
field goals
48-102
21-42
3-pointers
13-34
15-18
free throws
22-29
40
rebounds
47
33
assists
25
12
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Darius GarlandLAC3941311
Kawhi LeonardLAC363435
Naji MarshallDAL372824
P.J. WashingtonDAL412160
Cooper FlaggDAL4118108
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL251771

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +12
LAC +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 12 · LAC 10lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 62%, DAL 38% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
LAC by 4.5
Expected score
LAC 115.5 – 111.0 DAL
Expected total
226.6
ClippersThe matchupMavericks
−163Our fair odds+163
115.5Expected points111.0
+0.23Power rating−0.46
113.2Points / game113.3
112.7Allowed / game118.5
48.3FG%47.0
35.93P%33.8
40.6Rebounds / game44.9
34−36Season record23−47
5−5Last 102−8
Bennedict Mathurin · Bradley Beal
Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut (3 each)Brandon Williams · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair61.9%38.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−16362%————
DALDallas Mavericks+16338%————
SpreadLAC by 4.5
LACLA Clippers−4.5our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.6
Over226.6our total————
Under226.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 4.5 expected
LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%
← LAC wins byDAL wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more52%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more37%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GDarius Garlandstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·DAL
Mar 19 at NO
last game
Mar 18 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBennedict Mathurin · right toe; injury recoveryOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
LACKawhi Leonard · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALBrandon Williams · concussion protocolOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALCaleb Martin · right heel; contusionQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
LAC·DAL
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
113.2
points / game
113.3
112.7
points allowed / game
118.5
34−36
season record
23−47
19−15
home record
14−21
15−21
away record
9−26
L4
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
48.3
FG%
47.0
35.9
3P%
33.8
40.6
rebounds / game
44.9
23.6
assists / game
25.1
14.3
turnovers / game
14.9
49.4
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

LAC · DAL · 137 days
LA ClippersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Nov 29, 2025at LACDAL 114 − 110
Nov 14, 2025at DALLAC 133 − 127
Apr 5, 2025at LACLAC 135 − 104
Apr 4, 2025at LACLAC 114 − 91
Dec 21, 2024at DALDAL 113 − 97
Dec 19, 2024at DALLAC 118 − 95
May 3, 2024at DALDAL 114 − 101post
May 1, 2024at LACDAL 123 − 93post
Apr 28, 2024at DALLAC 116 − 111post
Apr 26, 2024at DALDAL 101 − 90post

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Mar 19at NO99 − 105L
Mar 18at NO109 − 124L
Mar 16vs SA115 − 119L
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W
Mar 9vs NY126 − 118W
Mar 7at MEM123 − 120W
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L
Mar 4vs IND130 − 107W

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L
Mar 6at BOS100 − 120L
Mar 5at ORL114 − 115L
Mar 3at CHA90 − 117L